- The Mariners are -125 favorites vs the Phillies
- Phillies vs Mariners Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Phillies / Mariners TV Channel: NSPA | RTNW | MLBN
The Philadelphia Phillies (+100) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-120) on Saturday, August 3, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Seattle, WA.
This season, the Phillies are 65-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 50-61 ATS.
Phillies vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Orion Kerkering 2-2, 2.29 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Bryce Miller 8-7, 3.48 ERA
Phillies vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +165 | O 8 +100 | +100 |
| Mariners | +1.5 -200 | U 8 -120 | -120 |
Phillies vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 24 games (+15.30 Units / 64% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 23 games (+14.70 Units / 35% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 50 games (+13.55 Units / 27% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 31 games (+12.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+12.15 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luke Raley has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 20 games at home (+16.40 Units / 82% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 39 games (+13.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- Cal Raleigh has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+12.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- Bryce Miller has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.60 Units / 83% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+9.75 Units / 48% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 57 of their last 94 games (+17.40 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 57 of their last 92 games (+15.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 55 of their last 91 games (+12.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+9.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 38 away games (+5.25 Units / 13% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 54 games at home (+17.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games at home (+10.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 55 games at home (+8.70 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.90 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.40 Units / 41% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 54-55 against the Run Line (-2.35 Units / -1.81% ROI).
- 65-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.85 Units / -0.48% ROI
- 50-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -10 Units / -8.3% ROI
- 54-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.25 Units / -1.05% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 50-61 against the Run Line (-14.9 Units / -10.59% ROI).
- 58-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.6 Units / -5.24% ROI
- 47-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.4 Units / -15.23% ROI
- 60-47 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.35 Units / 6.87% ROI
Mariners vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -350 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Mitch Haniger (SEA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Mariners vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Victor Robles (SEA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
Mariners vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Dylan Moore (SEA) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Mariners vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Miller (SEA) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Orion Kerkering has allowed an OPS of just .301 (52 PA’s) versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — best among NL Relievers; League Avg: .712 — 100th Percentile.
Orion Kerkering has walked 2 of 46 batters (4%) with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 5th best among NL Relievers; League Avg: 11% — 95th Percentile.
Orion Kerkering has allowed a slugging percentage of just .241 (19 Total Bases / 79 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — tied for 6th best among NL Relievers; League Avg: .361 — 95th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .087 (4-for-46) against Orion Kerkering versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — best among NL Relievers; League Avg: .241 — 100th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryce Miller has allowed a slugging percentage of just .179 (12 Total Bases / 67 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .399 — 98th Percentile.
Bryce Miller has allowed an OBP of just .228 (189 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 92nd Percentile.
Bryce Miller has walked 7 of 189 batters (4%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 94th Percentile.
Bryce Miller has allowed a slugging percentage of just .305 (62 Total Bases / 203 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .383 — 95th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Phillies are just 2-9 (.182) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 15-10 (.600) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Phillies are 9-28 (.243) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .144.
The Phillies are 28-15 (.651) after a loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .507.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Mariners are 65-13 (.833) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .741.
The Mariners are 36-4 (.900) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Mariners are 162-27 (.857) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
The Mariners are 101-17 (.856) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .789.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Games involving the Phillies went OVER in 87% of their games (72.9% ROI) when underdogs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .342 (1,356 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
The Phillies are batting .252 with two outs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .782 (3,225 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .733.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .203 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Mariners hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Mariners are batting just .217 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
The Mariners are batting just .229 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .182 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mariners pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 22% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mariners pitchers have an ERA of 2.64 (501.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.96.
The Mariners have allowed 3.02 runs per game (166/55) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.39.
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .278 (3,961 PA’s) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Mariners vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- J.P. Crawford (Seattle Mariners): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Dominic Canzone (Seattle Mariners): Thigh, 10-Day IL
- Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Achilles, 60-Day IL
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Julio Rodriguez (Seattle Mariners): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 60-Day IL
- Rodolfo Castro (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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