- The Phillies are -140 favorites vs the Mariners
- Phillies vs Mariners Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Phillies / Mariners TV Channel: NSPA | RTNW | MLBN
The Philadelphia Phillies (-130) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (+110) on Sunday, August 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Seattle, WA.
This season, the Phillies are 65-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 50-62 ATS.
Phillies vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zack Wheeler 10-5, 2.96 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert 6-7, 3.12 ERA
Phillies vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +140 | O 7 -105 | -130 |
| Mariners | +1.5 -165 | U 7 -115 | +110 |
Phillies vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 57.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 25 games (+14.30 Units / 57% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 50 games (+13.55 Units / 27% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 24 games (+12.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 43 games (+12.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 32 games (+11.20 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luke Raley has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 20 games at home (+16.40 Units / 82% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 40 games (+14.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 24 games at home (+13.90 Units / 58% ROI)
- Logan Gilbert has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.70 Units / 42% ROI)
- Cal Raleigh has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+10.10 Units / 29% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 58 of their last 95 games (+18.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 58 of their last 93 games (+16.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 56 of their last 92 games (+13.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 54 of their last 93 games (+9.05 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 39 away games (+6.25 Units / 15% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 55 games at home (+16.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 33 of their last 56 games at home (+9.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 51 games at home (+9.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 46 games at home (+6.65 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.90 Units / 44% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 55-55 against the Run Line (-1.35 Units / -1.02% ROI).
- 65-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.9 Units / -1.06% ROI
- 51-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -9 Units / -7.4% ROI
- 54-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.35 Units / -1.95% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 50-62 against the Run Line (-15.9 Units / -11.22% ROI).
- 59-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.6 Units / -4.52% ROI
- 48-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.4 Units / -14.27% ROI
- 60-48 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.25 Units / 5.91% ROI
Mariners vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -375 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Mitch Haniger (SEA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Mariners vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
Mariners vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Mariners vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler (PHI) | 7.5 -115 | 7.5 -115 |
| Logan Gilbert (SEA) | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -120 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has allowed a slugging percentage of just .230 (49 Total Bases / 213 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .382 — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (2,187/5,131) in non-two strike counts since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (1,485/3,510) in non-two strike counts since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 96th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed an OBP of just .209 (230 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .292 — 100th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OBP of just .183 (197 PA’s) versus the top of the order this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .315 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .169 (32-for-189) against Logan Gilbert when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 95th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has induced opposing hitters to ground into 14 double plays in 60 opportunities (23%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 10% — 100th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OPS of just .451 (198 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .683 — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Phillies are 15-10 (.600) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .423.
The Phillies are just 2-10 (.167) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 56-9 (.862) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Phillies are just 17-25 (.405) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Mariners are just 5-16 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .367.
The Mariners are 57-7 (.891) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .799.
The Mariners are 37-4 (.902) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Mariners are 79-65 (.549) after a win since the 2023 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .505.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .335 (4,977 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .783 (1,359 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .782 (3,228 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .733.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .778 (4,977 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .216 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Mariners are batting just .229 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
The Mariners are batting just .206 at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Mariners hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 29% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mariners pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 22% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 262 of 4,016 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have an ERA of 2.41 (284.0 IP) against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.11.
Mariners pitchers have walked 1,130 of 16,008 batters (7%) since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- J.P. Crawford (Seattle Mariners): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Dominic Canzone (Seattle Mariners): Thigh, 10-Day IL
- Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Achilles, 60-Day IL
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Julio Rodriguez (Seattle Mariners): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 60-Day IL
- Rodolfo Castro (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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