- The Phillies are -250 favorites vs the Marlins
- Phillies vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Phillies / Marlins TV Channel: NSPA | BSFL | MLBN
The Philadelphia Phillies (-225) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+185) on Thursday, September 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Phillies are 83-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 65-74 ATS.
Phillies vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suarez 11-6, 3.04 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Adam Oller 1-1, 3.31 ERA
Phillies vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 -135 | O 8 -105 | -225 |
| Marlins | +1.5 +115 | U 8 -115 | +185 |
Phillies vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 77.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Phillies vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Edmundo Sosa has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 21 away games (+12.70 Units / 60% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 44 games (+12.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Under in 35 of his last 47 games (+11.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- Edmundo Sosa has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 21 away games (+11.35 Units / 47% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games (+11.00 Units / 122% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Burger has hit the Home Runs Over in 16 of his last 47 games (+32.80 Units / 70% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 48 games (+20.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 34 of his last 47 games (+19.15 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 48 games (+18.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 44 games (+18.05 Units / 27% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 47 games (+14.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 80 games (+12.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 68 of their last 124 games (+6.70 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 55 away games (+5.55 Units / 9% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 71 games at home (+28.35 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 33 of their last 47 games (+18.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games at home (+8.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 44 games (+8.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 44 games (+8.45 Units / 17% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 69-70 against the Run Line (-3.2 Units / -1.89% ROI).
- 83-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.35 Units / 1.07% ROI
- 64-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.35 Units / -8.06% ROI
- 69-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.75 Units / -1.15% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 65-74 against the Run Line (-29.46 Units / -16.2% ROI).
- 52-87 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.95 Units / -11.66% ROI
- 75-58 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.75 Units / 7.65% ROI
- 58-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -23.4 Units / -15.36% ROI
Marlins vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -300 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Marlins vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Marlins vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
Marlins vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ranger Suarez (PHI) | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +110 |
| Adam Oller (MIA) | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (134/232) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since last season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 95th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (232/388) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
25 of Ranger Suarez’s 100 breaking pitch strikeouts (25%) have been backdoor since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total IP; League Avg: 13% — 97th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 54% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (987/1,830) with two-strikes since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total IP; League Avg: 60% — first Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adam Oller has allowed an OBP of just .111 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .312 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .150 (6-for-40) against Adam Oller over the last 14 days — 5th best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .236 — 91st Percentile.
Adam Oller has not walked any of the 18 batters that he has faced when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Adam Oller has a strike rate of just 59% (110/185) in his last two starts — 5th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 65% — fifth Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are 72-12 (.857) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
The Phillies are 18-12 (.600) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Phillies are just 3-7 (.300) after a loss as underdogs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .432.
The Phillies are 7-3 (.700) after a win as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are just 19-18 (.514) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .751.
The Marlins are just 30-13 (.698) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .857.
The Marlins are just 6-6 (.500) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .800.
The Marlins are just 16-29 (.356) after a home loss this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .529.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .273 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Phillies hitters are slugging .450 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .410.
The Phillies are batting .292 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .337 (5,269 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Marlins have a winning percentage of just 37% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .296 (4,372 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .218 with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies have won 54% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 369 of 5,176 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Marlins have allowed 5.79 runs per game (411/71) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.08 (661.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.01.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 13% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miami Marlins – No Injuries Reported
- Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported
Bet now on Phillies vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
