- The Phillies are -225 favorites vs the Marlins
- Phillies vs Marlins Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Phillies / Marlins TV Channel: NSPA | BSFL
The Philadelphia Phillies (-225) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+185) on Friday, September 6, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Phillies are 84-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 65-75 ATS.
Phillies vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zack Wheeler 13-6, 2.65 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera 3-6, 5.43 ERA
Phillies vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 -135 | O 7 +100 | -225 |
| Marlins | +1.5 +110 | U 7 -120 | +185 |
Phillies vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB game with 64.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryson Stott has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 31 games (+14.20 Units / 46% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 38 games (+13.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Under in 30 of his last 39 games (+12.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- Edmundo Sosa has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 21 away games (+11.35 Units / 47% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 45 games (+11.15 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Burger has hit the Home Runs Over in 16 of his last 48 games (+31.80 Units / 66% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 49 games (+19.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 49 games (+19.30 Units / 34% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 34 of his last 48 games (+17.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 45 games (+16.30 Units / 24% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 48 games (+15.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 81 games (+11.10 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.80 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 69 of their last 125 games (+7.70 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in their last 5 away games (+5.75 Units / 81% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 72 games at home (+27.15 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 33 of their last 48 games (+17.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 45 games (+7.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 45 games (+7.45 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+7.00 Units / 17% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 70-70 against the Run Line (-2.2 Units / -1.29% ROI).
- 84-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.35 Units / 1.51% ROI
- 64-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.55 Units / -8.77% ROI
- 70-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.75 Units / -0.49% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 65-75 against the Run Line (-30.46 Units / -16.66% ROI).
- 52-88 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.95 Units / -12.27% ROI
- 75-59 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.55 Units / 6.82% ROI
- 59-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -22.4 Units / -14.61% ROI
Marlins vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Marlins vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Xavier Edwards (MIA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Marlins vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Marlins vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Edward Cabrera (MIA) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -135 |
| Zack Wheeler (PHI) | 7.5 +120 | 7.5 -160 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has allowed an OBP of just .200 (305 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .290 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .151 (33-for-219) against Zack Wheeler versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .248 — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (2,362/5,545) in non-two strike counts since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed an OPS of just .440 (306 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .669 — 100th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Edward Cabrera has walked 73 of 500 batters (15%) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 108 of 767 batters (14%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 54 of 432 batters (12%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 185 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 46 of 282 batters (16%) versus the 2-3-4 hitters since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 0 Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are 18-12 (.600) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Phillies are 12-109 (.099) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Phillies are just 3-7 (.300) after a loss as underdogs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .432.
The Phillies are 44-7 (.863) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .751.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are just 19-18 (.514) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .751.
The Marlins are just 6-6 (.500) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .800.
The Marlins are just 26-45 (.366) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .522.
The Marlins are just 30-13 (.698) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .857.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .349 (1,658 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .337 (5,276 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Phillies hitters are slugging .445 against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .795 (1,658 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Marlins have a winning percentage of just 36% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .285 (1,689 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .296 (4,394 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .233 against Phillies pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 371 of 5,212 batters (7%) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins have allowed 5.78 runs per game (416/72) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 4.72 (1242.1 IP) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
Marlins vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miami Marlins – No Injuries Reported
- Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported
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