- The Phillies are -250 favorites vs the Marlins
- Phillies vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Phillies / Marlins TV Channel: NSPA | BSFL
The Philadelphia Phillies (-250) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+195) on Saturday, September 7, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Phillies are 85-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 65-76 ATS.
Phillies vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 12-6, 3.32 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Darren McCaughan 0-0, 8.25 ERA
Phillies vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 -135 | O 8 -105 | -250 |
| Marlins | +1.5 +115 | U 8 -115 | +195 |
Phillies vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 78.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Phillies vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryson Stott has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 32 games (+13.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- Edmundo Sosa has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 21 away games (+12.70 Units / 60% ROI)
- Edmundo Sosa has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 21 away games (+11.35 Units / 47% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Under in 30 of his last 40 games (+10.25 Units / 13% ROI)
- Edmundo Sosa has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 away games (+10.05 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jake Burger has hit the Home Runs Over in 16 of his last 49 games (+30.80 Units / 63% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+17.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+17.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 34 of his last 49 games (+16.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 46 games (+14.75 Units / 21% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 49 games (+13.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 82 games (+10.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.80 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 70 of their last 126 games (+8.70 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in their last 6 away games (+6.75 Units / 78% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 73 games at home (+28.15 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 33 of their last 49 games (+16.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 46 games (+6.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 46 games (+6.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 36 games at home (+5.80 Units / 13% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 71-70 against the Run Line (-1.2 Units / -0.7% ROI).
- 85-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.35 Units / 1.93% ROI
- 65-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.55 Units / -8.07% ROI
- 70-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.9 Units / -1.23% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 65-76 against the Run Line (-31.46 Units / -17.11% ROI).
- 52-89 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.95 Units / -12.86% ROI
- 76-59 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.55 Units / 7.41% ROI
- 59-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -23.55 Units / -15.25% ROI
Marlins vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -300 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
Marlins vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kody Clemens (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Brandon Marsh (PHI) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Marlins vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Kody Clemens (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
Marlins vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola (PHI) | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +120 |
| Darren McCaughan (CLE) | 3.5 +115 | 3.5 -150 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (379/1,079) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 98th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 32% of the time (508/1,578) when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 185 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 96th Percentile.
Hitters have chased 489 of Aaron Nola’s 1,064 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 46%) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .133 (16-for-120) against Aaron Nola’s elevated fastball this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .206 — 96th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Darren McCaughan has limited playing time.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are 18-12 (.600) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Phillies are 12-109 (.099) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Phillies are 27-24 (.529) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Phillies are 72-12 (.857) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .726.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are just 6-6 (.500) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .800.
The Marlins are just 26-45 (.366) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .522.
The Marlins are just 30-13 (.698) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .857.
The Marlins are just 19-18 (.514) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .751.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .351 (1,682 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Phillies are batting .276 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Phillies hitters are slugging .452 against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Phillies hitters are slugging .446 against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Marlins have a winning percentage of just 36% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .350 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .296 (4,398 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
The Marlins have a winning percentage of just 37% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies have won 54% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have walked 495 of 5,466 batters (9%) this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins have allowed 5.92 runs per game (432/73) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.43.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.21 (679.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
Marlins vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miami Marlins – No Injuries Reported
- Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported
Bet now on Phillies vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
