- The Phillies are -135 favorites vs the Marlins
- Phillies vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Phillies / Marlins TV Channel: NSPA | BSFL
The Philadelphia Phillies (-135) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (+115) on Sunday, September 8, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Miami, FL.
This season, the Phillies are 85-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 66-76 ATS.
Phillies vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Seth Johnson 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera 3-6, 5.43 ERA
Phillies vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +125 | O 8.5 -110 | -135 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -155 | U 8.5 -110 | +115 |
Phillies vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 58.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryce Harper has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 40 games (+12.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 33 games (+12.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- Edmundo Sosa has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 21 away games (+11.35 Units / 47% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 41 games (+11.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Total Bases Under in 29 of his last 43 games (+10.75 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jonah Bride has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 33 games (+35.00 Units / 106% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 35 of his last 50 games (+17.70 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+17.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+17.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in 35 of his last 47 games (+15.75 Units / 22% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 50 games (+12.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 83 games (+11.00 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 58 away games (+6.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games (+6.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 70 of their last 127 games (+6.10 Units / 3% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 74 games at home (+29.15 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 34 of their last 50 games (+17.20 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 20 of their last 47 games (+8.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 47 games (+7.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 47 games (+7.15 Units / 15% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 71-71 against the Run Line (-2.7 Units / -1.56% ROI).
- 85-57 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.85 Units / 0.81% ROI
- 66-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.55 Units / -7.38% ROI
- 70-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.1 Units / -1.99% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 66-76 against the Run Line (-30.16 Units / -16.32% ROI).
- 53-89 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.85 Units / -11.36% ROI
- 77-59 when betting on the total runs Over for +12.55 Units / 8% ROI
- 59-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -24.75 Units / -15.9% ROI
Marlins vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
Marlins vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Marlins vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jake Burger (MIA) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Trea Turner (PHI) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jesus Sanchez (MIA) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Marlins vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seth Johnson (BAL) | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +130 |
| Edward Cabrera (MIA) | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 +100 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Edward Cabrera has walked 73 of 500 batters (15%) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 48 of 293 batters (16%) versus the top of the order since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 121 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 54 of 432 batters (12%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 186 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 141 of 1,058 batters (13%) since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 186 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Phillies are 18-12 (.600) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Phillies are 27-24 (.529) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Phillies are just 3-7 (.300) after a loss as underdogs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .432.
The Phillies are 17-19 (.472) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .360.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Marlins are just 30-13 (.698) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .857.
The Marlins are just 6-20 (.231) after a road win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .470.
The Marlins are just 6-6 (.500) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .800.
The Marlins are just 31-17 (.646) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .800.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .351 (1,682 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Phillies are batting .276 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .338 (5,300 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .800 (1,682 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .296 (4,403 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .635 (1,698 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Marlins have a winning percentage of just 37% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
The Phillies have won 54% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.19 (688.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.99.
Marlins pitchers have walked 495 of 5,503 batters (9%) this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Marlins have allowed 5.91 runs per game (437/74) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.43.
Marlins vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miami Marlins – No Injuries Reported
- Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported
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