- The Phillies are -175 favorites vs the Nationals
- Phillies vs Nationals Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Phillies / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | NSPA
The Philadelphia Phillies (-155) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+130) on Sunday, September 29, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 3:05pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Phillies are 94-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 89-72 ATS.
Phillies vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 13-8, 3.55 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jake Irvin 10-13, 4.24 ERA
Phillies vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +105 | O 7.5 +100 | -155 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -125 | U 7.5 -120 | +130 |
Phillies vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 66.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 32 games (+14.80 Units / 46% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Under in 31 of his last 40 games (+13.40 Units / 17% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 24 games (+10.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 21 away games (+9.70 Units / 36% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Walks Under in 24 of his last 42 games (+9.55 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- James Wood has hit the Total Bases Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+15.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- Dylan Crews has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 games (+10.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- Juan Yepez has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 17 games at home (+10.10 Units / 59% ROI)
- Jacob Young has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jose Tena has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.40 Units / 43% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 44 of their last 69 games (+17.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 60 of their last 102 games (+12.80 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 68 away games (+9.00 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 33 games (+1.70 Units / 3% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 86 of their last 153 games (+8.70 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 10 games at home (+7.75 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 39 games (+7.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.10 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 53 games at home (+5.35 Units / 9% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 78-83 against the Run Line (-9.1 Units / -4.62% ROI).
- 94-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.75 Units / -1.07% ROI
- 77-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.25 Units / -4.08% ROI
- 76-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.15 Units / -5.18% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 89-72 against the Run Line (+4.75 Units / 2.25% ROI).
- 71-90 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.1 Units / -0.06% ROI
- 75-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.9 Units / -5.63% ROI
- 78-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.4 Units / -3.02% ROI
Nationals vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -300 |
| Joey Gallo (WAS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Kody Clemens (PHI) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Brandon Marsh (PHI) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Nationals vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jose Tena (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Nationals vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Kody Clemens (PHI) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Brandon Marsh (PHI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryson Stott (PHI) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Nationals vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Irvin (WAS) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
| Aaron Nola (PHI) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (405/1,159) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 128 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 97th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has allowed an OBP of just .247 (860 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .289 — 95th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has walked 44 of 853 batters (5%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 87th Percentile.
Hitters have chased 701 of Aaron Nola’s 1,417 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 49%) since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 192 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 32% of the time (640/2,031) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 97th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown elevated pitches 48% of the time (455/949) with two-strikes this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
37% of Jake Irvin’s called strikeouts are elevated this season — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 86th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (445/1,275) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 128 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 98th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Phillies are just 3-7 (.300) after a loss as underdogs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .434.
The Phillies are 12-117 (.093) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Phillies are 18-12 (.600) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
The Phillies are 20-7 (.741) after a home loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .533.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Nationals are 11-2 (.846) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .582.
The Nationals are just 96-144 (.400) at home since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .526.
The Nationals are 14-6 (.700) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .589.
The Nationals are just 73-121 (.376) after a win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .508.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .264 against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .342 (1,909 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Phillies are batting .271 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Phillies are batting .305 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .943 (2,213 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.086.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of just .295 (1,624 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .327.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of just .283 (814 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.
Nationals hitters have just 1,091 strikeouts in 5,601 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .236 against Phillies pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies have won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Phillies have won 55% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have allowed an OBP of .341 (4,274 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .308.
Nationals vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Washington Nationals – No Injuries Reported
- Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported
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