The Philadelphia Phillies (+120) visit Ed Smith Stadium to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-145) on Wednesday, March 20, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 6:05pm EDT in Sarasota, FL.
This season, the Phillies are 7-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 11-6 ATS.
Phillies vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +120 |
| Orioles | -145 |
Phillies vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 55.2% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+3.05 Units / 79% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 2 of his last 3 away games (+2.85 Units / 95% ROI)
- Kody Clemens has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 2 away games (+2.25 Units / 112% ROI)
- Johan Rojas has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Kody Clemens has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Stowers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 9 games (+9.25 Units / 73% ROI)
- Adley Rutschman has hit the Hits Under in his last 3 games (+4.70 Units / 100% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+3.70 Units / 185% ROI)
- Ryan Mountcastle has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+2.75 Units / 79% ROI)
- Heston Kjerstad has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 62% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 118 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 24 away games (+9.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+7.18 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.21 Units / 41% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 100 of their last 162 games (+33.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 89 of their last 152 games (+23.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 22 games (+11.60 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+6.72 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 46 of their last 81 games (+5.39 Units / 6% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Phillies are 12-6 against the Run Line (+4.64 Units / 19.4% ROI).
- 7-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.15 Units / 0.62% ROI
- 6-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.8 Units / -29.53% ROI
- 11-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.46 Units / 22.27% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Orioles are 11-6 against the Run Line (+4.24 Units / 20.01% ROI).
- 15-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.37 Units / 58.23% ROI
- 8-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.41 Units / 2.21% ROI
- 7-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.82 Units / -9.64% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Taijuan Walker had a strike rate of just 61% (1,722/2,837) in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — fourth Percentile.
Taijuan Walker had a strike rate of just 58% (457/788) in two strike counts in the 2023 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Hitters chased just 55 of Taijuan Walker’s 314 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 17%) in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a miss rate of just 17% (107/611) against Taijuan Walker in the 2023 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — second Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dean Kremer located 57% of his pitches away (1,656/2,925) in the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of 27% (141/518) versus Dean Kremer in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents had a line drive rate of 35% (35/99) versus Dean Kremer with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
68% of Dean Kremer’s non-fastball strikeouts were located away in the 2023 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 47% — 97th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Phillies are 27-115 (.190) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Phillies were 7-64 (.099) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Phillies are 47-33 (.588) after a road win since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Phillies were 19-11 (.633) after a home loss in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .508.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Orioles were 15-6 (.714) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 135-8 (.944) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .871.
The Orioles are 54-41 (.568) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Orioles were 17-10 (.630) after a road loss in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .464.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters slugged .454 against LHP in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Phillies batted .252 with two outs in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Phillies hitters struck out 471 times in 1,869 PA’s (25%) against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies hitters slugged .488 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .455.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
The Orioles were 36-16 (.692) against the run line (28.5% ROI) after a road win in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .498.
The Orioles are 193-126 (.601) against the run line (12.5% ROI) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .493.
Orioles hitters drew 169 walks in 1,701 PA’s (10%) against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Orioles won 64% of their road games in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.4 MPH (4,019 batted balls) in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
The Phillies won 54% of home games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Phillies pitchers induced opposing hitters to ground into just 95 double plays in 1,088 opportunities (9%) in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
The Orioles won 53% of road games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Orioles pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Orioles pitchers won 42% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .198 against Orioles pitchers with the shift in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Orioles vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Gunnar Henderson (Baltimore Orioles): Oblique, Out
- Felix Bautista (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Terrin Vavra (Baltimore Orioles): Shoulder, Out
- John Means (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, Out
- Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, Out
- Shintaro Fujinami (Baltimore Orioles): Personal, Out
- Brandon Marsh (Philadelphia Phillies): Knee, Out
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Alec Bohm (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, Day-To-Day
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, Day-To-Day
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