- The Phillies are -120 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Phillies vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Phillies / Red Sox TV Channel: NSPA | NESN | MLBN
The Philadelphia Phillies (-120) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+100) on Thursday, June 13, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Phillies are 46-21 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 31-37 ATS.
Phillies vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 8-2, 2.80 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck 6-5, 1.90 ERA
Phillies vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Phillies | -1.5 +140 | O 8.5 -110 | -120 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -165 | U 8.5 -110 | +100 |
Phillies vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 54.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 20 away games (+19.00 Units / 95% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 36 games (+14.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 32 games (+12.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 28 of his last 42 games (+11.80 Units / 23% ROI)
- Whit Merrifield has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.75 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- David Hamilton has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+16.60 Units / 415% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 32 of his last 49 games (+15.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- Rob Refsnyder has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+13.75 Units / 42% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 27 games (+9.70 Units / 32% ROI)
- David Hamilton has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+9.45 Units / 27% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 52 games (+20.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 50 games (+19.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 36 of their last 50 games (+19.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 51 games (+18.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 34 of their last 49 games (+16.90 Units / 28% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games at home (+9.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+6.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+5.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 34 of their last 68 games (+4.05 Units / 5% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 38-29 against the Run Line (+10.15 Units / 12.7% ROI).
- 46-21 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.75 Units / 13.26% ROI
- 28-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.55 Units / -14.31% ROI
- 35-28 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.95 Units / 5.36% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 31-37 against the Run Line (-12.1 Units / -13.11% ROI).
- 34-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.9 Units / -4.69% ROI
- 29-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.95 Units / -11.96% ROI
- 35-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.55 Units / 4.74% ROI
Red Sox vs Phillies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Enmanuel Valdez (BOS) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Red Sox vs Phillies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| David Dahl (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| David Hamilton (BOS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Red Sox vs Phillies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Alec Bohm (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
Red Sox vs Phillies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola (PHI) | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
| Tanner Houck (BOS) | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -140 |
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has allowed an OBP of just .218 (165 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .301 — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 36% of the time (290/799) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 90 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .113 (17-for-151) against Aaron Nola with two-strikes this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .162 — 91st Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 32% of the time (419/1,298) when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 97th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (81/137) against Tanner Houck this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 98th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has allowed a slugging percentage of just .254 (80 Total Bases / 315 ABs) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .376 — 98th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has allowed a slugging percentage of just .191 (21 Total Bases / 110 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .379 — 100th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has allowed an OPS of just .295 (180 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .483 — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Phillies are 3-15 (.167) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .060.
The Phillies are 8-4 (.667) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .303.
The Phillies are 4-13 (.235) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .112.
The Phillies are 7-12 (.368) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .155.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Red Sox are just 0-12 (.000) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .239.
The Red Sox are just 1-23 (.042) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .155.
The Red Sox are just 4-169 (.023) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Red Sox are just 2-103 (.019) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .053.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have a groundball batting average of .321 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Phillies hitters are slugging .440 against LHP since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .340 (897 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Phillies hitters are slugging .507 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .447.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox hitters have 200 strikeouts in 704 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Red Sox are batting .270 at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .252 on pitches out of the zone since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .131 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Phillies have won 58% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 20% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 178 of 2,522 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 11 of 90 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (10 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Red Sox pitchers have 109 three-pitch strikeouts this season — tied for 3rd most in MLB.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 12 of 108 batters (11%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Red Sox vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Orion Kerkering (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 15-Day IL
- Michael Lorenzen (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Weston Wilson (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, Day-To-Day
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, 10-Day IL
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