The Philadelphia Phillies (+115) visit George M. Steinbrenner Field to take on the New York Yankees (-135) on Saturday, March 23, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Tampa, FL.
This season, the Phillies are 7-8 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 7-12 ATS.
Phillies vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +115 |
| Yankees | -135 |
Phillies vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Saturday‘s matchup with 56.6% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 2 of his last 3 away games (+2.85 Units / 95% ROI)
- Edmundo Sosa has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ben Rortvedt has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Estevan Florial has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Runs Over in 1 of his last 2 games at home (+1.10 Units / 55% ROI)
- Franchy Cordero has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+1.05 Units / 52% ROI)
- Ben Rortvedt has hit the Singles Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+0.85 Units / 43% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 118 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 24 away games (+9.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+7.18 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.21 Units / 41% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 37 games at home (+9.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 53 games at home (+9.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 32 games (+7.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 37 of their last 81 games at home (+3.80 Units / 3% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 41 games at home (+3.68 Units / 8% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Phillies are 13-6 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 21.78% ROI).
- 7-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.18 Units / -4.05% ROI
- 6-12 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.1 Units / -33.27% ROI
- 12-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +1 Units / 25.84% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Yankees are 7-12 against the Run Line (+1.3 Units / -29.34% ROI).
- 7-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / -29.62% ROI
- 9-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.1 Units / 1.2% ROI
- 8-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +1 Units / -9.25% ROI
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 70% (55/78) against Cristopher Sanchez’s changeup in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 51% — 97th Percentile.
Cristopher Sanchez threw his changeup 38% of the time (444/1,169) against right-handed batters in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CH; League Avg: 13% — 99th Percentile.
Cristopher Sanchez induced opposing hitters to ground into 13 double plays in 63 opportunities (21%) in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 58% (162/281) against Cristopher Sanchez in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carlos Rodon has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 85.7 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season (101 balls in play) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 80.6
Carlos Rodon’s highest spin rate on sliders since the 2022 season is 3503.0 RPM — 3rd most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 2862.8
The hardest ball hit off of Carlos Rodon since the 2022 season was just 112.5 MPH — tied for 13th hardest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 114.9
Carlos Rodon’s lowest spin rate on fastballs since the 2022 season is 223.0 RPM — 15th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 1212.5
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Phillies were 7-64 (.099) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Phillies are 27-115 (.190) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Phillies were 11-9 (.550) after a win as underdogs in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .433.
The Phillies are 10-124 (.075) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Yankees are 19-17 (.528) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Yankees are just 14-28 (.333) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Yankees were just 10-56 (.152) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .220.
The Yankees were just 9-37 (.196) when allowing 10 or more hits in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies batted .252 with two outs in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Phillies hitters chased 31% of pitches out of the zone against RHP in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies hitters slugged .488 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .455.
Phillies hitters struck out 471 times in 1,869 PA’s (25%) against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
The Yankees batted just .234 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Yankees hitters had a groundball batting average of just .212 in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Yankees batted just .220 against starting pitchers in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
The Yankees batted just .227 in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies won 54% of home games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed the 25th hardest ball in play hit (118.6 MPH) in the 2023 season (; League Avg: 117.2).
Phillies pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 901 times in the 2023 season — 4th fewest in MLB.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .215 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
In games when their opponents scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees won just just 14% of the time in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Yankees pitchers have won 32% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .215 against Yankees pitchers in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Yankees vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lou Trivino (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Scott Effross (New York Yankees): Back, 60-Day IL
- Jasson Dominguez (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wandy Peralta (New York Yankees): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Ryan Weber (New York Yankees): Forearm, Out
- Jose Trevino (New York Yankees): Calf, Out
- Brandon Marsh (Philadelphia Phillies): Knee, Out
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Alec Bohm (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, Day-To-Day
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, Day-To-Day
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