- The Pirates are -145 favorites vs the Astros
- Pirates vs Astros Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Pirates / Astros TV Channel: SCHN | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (-135) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (+115) on Monday, July 29, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston, TX.
This season, the Pirates are 53-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 54-51 ATS.
Pirates vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Paul Skenes 6-1, 1.93 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Jake Bloss 0-1, 6.95 ERA
Pirates vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | -1.5 +135 | O 7.5 -120 | -135 |
| Astros | +1.5 -160 | U 7.5 +100 | +115 |
Pirates vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Monday‘s MLB game with 56.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 away games (+13.40 Units / 149% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.90 Units / 52% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 away games (+8.90 Units / 37% ROI)
- Connor Joe has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.40 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 39 of his last 50 games (+23.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 22 games at home (+23.50 Units / 107% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 34 of his last 48 games (+16.55 Units / 27% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+15.65 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 48 games (+15.30 Units / 24% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 94 games (+11.80 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 43 games (+11.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 66 games (+10.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 61 games (+9.70 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 61 games (+7.90 Units / 11% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 47 games (+16.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 88 games (+14.65 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 32 games (+11.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 22 games at home (+9.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 41 of their last 69 games (+8.95 Units / 11% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 57-48 against the Run Line (+5.81 Units / 4.24% ROI).
- 53-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.2 Units / -0.16% ROI
- 47-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.4 Units / -10.63% ROI
- 54-47 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.18 Units / 2.78% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 54-51 against the Run Line (+3.95 Units / 3.04% ROI).
- 55-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.65 Units / -5.88% ROI
- 42-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.4 Units / -20.35% ROI
- 60-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.8 Units / 11.87% ROI
Astros vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jack Suwinski (PIT) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
| Josh Palacios (PIT) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
Astros vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Josh Palacios (PIT) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Astros vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Josh Palacios (PIT) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jack Suwinski (PIT) | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Astros vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Bloss (HOU) | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
| Paul Skenes (PIT) | 7.5 +115 | 7.5 -150 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Paul Skenes has a strikeout rate of 34% (97 SO in 284 PAs) this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .108 (8-for-74) against Paul Skenes this month (3 games) — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — 97th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has pitched 7 or more innings in each of his last three games — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Paul Skenes has a strikeout rate of 61% (27 SO in 44 PAs) with two-strikes this month (3 games) — 2nd best among among NL Starters; League Avg: 42% — 97th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jake Bloss has limited playing time.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Pirates are just 31-64 (.326) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Pirates are just 16-27 (.372) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Pirates are 27-5 (.844) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .760.
The Pirates are 16-12 (.571) after a road loss this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .483.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Astros are just 0-38 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .055.
The Astros are 42-5 (.894) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Astros are 114-21 (.844) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .789.
The Astros are 71-53 (.573) after a road win since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .485.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 39 extra-base hits out of 151 total hits (just 26%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .303 (4,896 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Pirates hitters have 423 strikeouts in 1,260 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .177 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .212.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 845 strikeouts in 4,783 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 524 strikeouts in 2,933 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (1,451/10,222 PA’s) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,503 of 16,488 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% over the last 14 days — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 34% with two-strikes over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Pirates pitchers have 170 three-pitch strikeouts this season — 4th most in MLB.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% against Astros pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% against Astros pitchers over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers this season is 387.7 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 397.6
Astros vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- J.P. France (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kyle Tucker (Houston Astros): Lower Leg, 10-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Cristian Javier (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Bryan Reynolds (Pittsburgh Pirates): Back, Day-To-Day
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Bailey Falter (Pittsburgh Pirates): Triceps, 15-Day IL
- Ryan Borucki (Pittsburgh Pirates): Wrist, 60-Day IL
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