- The Blue Jays are -165 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Blue Jays Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Pirates / Blue Jays TV Channel: RSN | TVA | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+130) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-155) on Saturday, June 1, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 3:07pm EDT in Toronto, ON.
This season, the Pirates are 26-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 27-29 ATS.
Pirates vs Blue Jays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller 6-3, 3.61 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Yusei Kikuchi 2-4, 3.25 ERA
Pirates vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -160 | O 7.5 -105 | +130 |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +135 | U 7.5 -115 | -155 |
Pirates vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 53.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 away games (+15.50 Units / 172% ROI)
- Edward Olivares has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+14.25 Units / 50% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+12.55 Units / 51% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 45 games (+11.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.95 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 17 games (+20.00 Units / 118% ROI)
- Daulton Varsho has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 37 games (+15.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 24 games at home (+11.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- Danny Jansen has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+9.80 Units / 43% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+8.20 Units / 29% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 46 games (+12.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+9.60 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+6.95 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.80 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games (+4.95 Units / 20% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 51 games (+9.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 55 games (+7.40 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 42 games (+5.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.70 Units / 29% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 30-27 against the Run Line (-0.14 Units / -0.18% ROI).
- 26-31 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.05 Units / -10.51% ROI
- 28-25 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.8 Units / 1.27% ROI
- 25-28 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.27 Units / -8.45% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 27-29 against the Run Line (-6.75 Units / -9.04% ROI).
- 27-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.15 Units / -9.48% ROI
- 23-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.35 Units / -20.08% ROI
- 32-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.4 Units / 10.37% ROI
Blue Jays vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Danny Jansen (TOR) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Davis Schneider (TOR) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Daulton Varsho (TOR) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Blue Jays vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Danny Jansen (TOR) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Davis Schneider (TOR) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| George Springer (TOR) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Justin Turner (TOR) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa (TOR) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Blue Jays vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bo Bichette (TOR) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Justin Turner (TOR) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Davis Schneider (TOR) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Blue Jays vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yusei Kikuchi (TOR) | 5.5 -165 | 5.5 +130 |
| Mitch Keller (PIT) | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (65/203) against Mitch Keller this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .277 (165-for-595) against Mitch Keller when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — seventh Percentile.
6 of Mitch Keller’s 18 breaking pitch strikeouts (33%) have been backdoor this season — tied for highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an OBP of .349 (664 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .287 — eighth Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yusei Kikuchi has allowed a slugging percentage of .743 (26 Total Bases / 35 ABs) on fastballs away this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .334 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .340 (17-for-50) against Yusei Kikuchi with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — fourth Percentile.
Yusei Kikuchi has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (61/178) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 97th Percentile.
Yusei Kikuchi has thrown his curveball 24% of the time (194/791) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 86 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 96th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Pirates are just 14-23 (.378) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 31-64 (.326) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Pirates are 50-8 (.862) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .739.
The Pirates are just 131-68 (.658) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Blue Jays are 25-17 (.595) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Blue Jays are 19-11 (.633) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Blue Jays are 78-31 (.716) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .577.
The Blue Jays are just 11-74 (.129) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .339 against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .387.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .381 against RHP since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .178 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .213.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .501 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .584.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters have just 358 strikeouts in 1,896 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays hitters have just 90 strikeouts in 491 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays hitters have just 604 strikeouts in 3,135 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays hitters have an OBP of .332 (3,135 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 3,969 times since the 2022 season — 4th most in MLB.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,366 of 14,683 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 361 times this season — 5th most in MLB.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Pirates pitchers over the last 14 days — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Blue Jays pitchers won only 15% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Blue Jays pitchers had allowed a run just 24% of the time after an opposing score in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
The average home run distance against the Blue Jays pitchers since the 2022 season is 393.5 feet — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 398.3
Blue Jays vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Erik Swanson (Toronto Blue Jays): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Jordan Romano (Toronto Blue Jays): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Bo Bichette (Toronto Blue Jays): Neck, Day-To-Day
- Danny Jansen (Toronto Blue Jays): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Alek Manoah (Toronto Blue Jays): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
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