- Pirates / Blue Jays TV Channel: RSN
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+180) visit TD Ballpark to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-225) on Wednesday, March 13, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:07pm EDT in Dunedin, FL.
This season, the Pirates are 6-10 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 6-7 ATS.
Pirates vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +180 |
| Blue Jays | -225 |
Pirates vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 59.2% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Canaan Smith-Njigba has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.85 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jason Delay has hit the Singles Over in his last 2 away games (+3.30 Units / 165% ROI)
- Canaan Smith-Njigba has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.25 Units / 112% ROI)
- Jack Suwinski has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Canaan Smith-Njigba has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 away games (+1.40 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Tyler Heineman has hit the Runs Over in his last 2 games (+4.10 Units / 205% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Nathan Lukes has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 70% ROI)
- Matt Chapman has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 66 games at home (+12.34 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 111 games (+11.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.66 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 games at home (+1.85 Units / 15% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Pirates are 7-9 against the Run Line (-2.94 Units / -14.44% ROI).
- 6-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.97 Units / -26.51% ROI
- 9-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.4 Units / 13.51% ROI
- 6-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.87 Units / -22.09% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Blue Jays are 6-7 against the Run Line (-1.1 Units / -7.28% ROI).
- 7-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -5.12% ROI
- 7-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.6 Units / 4.18% ROI
- 6-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.45 Units / -10.16% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Roansy Contreras had an ERA of 6.59 (68.1 IP)in the 2023 season — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 4.28 — fifth Percentile.
Roansy Contreras threw breaking pitches 56% of the time (637/1,141) in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 97th Percentile.
Roansy Contreras located his fastball away 52% of the time (237/460) in the 2023 season — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 95th Percentile.
Roansy Contreras has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 93.8 MPH against his fastballs since last season (230 balls in play) — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 90.6
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Chris Bassitt has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.8 MPH on pitches out of the zone since last season (199 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 80.6
Opponents had a miss rate of just 11% (14/128) against Chris Bassitt on changeups in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 31% — first Percentile.
Chris Bassitt has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 81.1 MPH on inside pitches since last season (410 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 85.7
Chris Bassitt has averaged 77.8 MPH on sliders since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 85.1 — second Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Pirates are just 111-56 (.665) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Pirates are just 48-156 (.235) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.
The Pirates are just 138-183 (.430) since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 11-17 (.393) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Blue Jays are 18-13 (.581) after a loss as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
The Blue Jays are 158-36 (.814) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
The Blue Jays were 20-9 (.690) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Blue Jays are 68-103 (.398) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .282.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters struck out 128 times in 382 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters slugged just .511 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .596.
The Pirates have a winning percentage of just 42% since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates hitters had an OPS of just .701 (1,929 PA’s) against LHP in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .742.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Blue Jays batted just .240 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Blue Jays hitters struck out just 268 times in 1,405 PA’s (19%) against LHP in the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays hitters chased 26% of pitches out of the zone against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Blue Jays hitters slugged just .412 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .455.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 53% of their games on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
The Pirates won 40% of road games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Pirates pitchers had allowed a run 36% of the time after scoring a run on offense in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 56% of their games since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Blue Jays pitchers had a strikeout rate of 25% in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays pitchers won only 15% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Blue Jays pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cavan Biggio (Toronto Blue Jays): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Andrew McCutchen (Pittsburgh Pirates): Achilles, Out
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
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