- The Blue Jays are -165 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Blue Jays Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Pirates / Blue Jays TV Channel: RSN1 | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+140) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-165) on Friday, May 31, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Toronto, ON.
This season, the Pirates are 26-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 26-29 ATS.
Pirates vs Blue Jays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Undecided 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Jose Berrios 5-4, 2.97 ERA
Pirates vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -140 | O 8.5 -115 | +140 |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 +115 | U 8.5 -105 | -165 |
Pirates vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Friday‘s MLB game with 56.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 away games (+16.50 Units / 206% ROI)
- Edward Olivares has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+14.25 Units / 50% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.10 Units / 47% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.70 Units / 29% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.95 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 16 games (+21.00 Units / 131% ROI)
- Daulton Varsho has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 37 games (+15.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+10.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- Danny Jansen has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.80 Units / 40% ROI)
- Danny Jansen has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.50 Units / 31% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 45 games (+11.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+9.60 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.80 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+5.50 Units / 36% ROI)
Blue Jays Best Bets Today:
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+9.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 54 games (+8.60 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 41 games (+6.90 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 41 games (+4.35 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.00 Units / 21% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 30-26 against the Run Line (+1.21 Units / 1.62% ROI).
- 26-30 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.05 Units / -9.16% ROI
- 28-25 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.8 Units / 1.29% ROI
- 25-28 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.27 Units / -8.59% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Blue Jays are 26-29 against the Run Line (-7.9 Units / -10.72% ROI).
- 26-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.15 Units / -11.07% ROI
- 23-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.35 Units / -20.46% ROI
- 32-23 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.4 Units / 10.55% ROI
Blue Jays vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Danny Jansen (TOR) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Davis Schneider (TOR) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Justin Turner (TOR) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Blue Jays vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Connor Joe (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Danny Jansen (TOR) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Blue Jays vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bo Bichette (TOR) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Justin Turner (TOR) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Danny Jansen (TOR) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Blue Jays vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Falter (PIT) | 3.5 +105 | 3.5 -135 |
| Jose Berrios (TOR) | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Falter has a strikeout rate of just 7% (5 SO in 67 PAs) versus the bottom of the order this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Bailey Falter has a strikeout rate of just 13% (12 SO in 90 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Bailey Falter has a strikeout rate of just 14% (13 SO in 90 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — fourth Percentile.
Bailey Falter has struck out just 14% (25/176) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — fourth Percentile.
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 18% (45/253) against Jose Berrios this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Jose Berrios allowed a batting average of .279 vs right-handed batters (tied for ninth worst)– 12th Percentile and just .171 vs left-handed batters this season (fifth best among qualified SPs)– 93rd Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .171 (18-for-105) against Jose Berrios this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — 93rd Percentile.
Jose Berrios has allowed a slugging percentage of just .172 (5 Total Bases / 29 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .379 — 97th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Pirates are 50-8 (.862) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .739.
The Pirates are just 68-93 (.422) after a win since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.
The Pirates are just 79-112 (.414) on the road since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .475.
The Pirates are just 120-29 (.805) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .867.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Blue Jays are 25-17 (.595) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
The Blue Jays are 19-11 (.633) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .429.
The Blue Jays are 23-12 (.657) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Blue Jays are 50-39 (.562) after a road loss since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .461.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 402 strikeouts in 1,186 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Pirates are batting just .128 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Pirates hitters have 175 strikeouts in 678 PA’s (26%) against LHP this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Pirates are batting just .152 with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters have just 834 strikeouts in 4,456 PA’s (19%) in righty-righty matchups since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays hitters have just 598 strikeouts in 3,109 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Blue Jays hitters have chased just 17% pitches with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Blue Jays hitters are slugging just .429 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .552.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,359 of 14,628 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 4.55 (1719.0 IP) at home since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Pirates pitchers over the last 14 days — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 12 of 224 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (25 games) — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Blue Jays pitchers have allowed a run just 25% of the time after an opposing score since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 41% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Erik Swanson (Toronto Blue Jays): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Jordan Romano (Toronto Blue Jays): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Bo Bichette (Toronto Blue Jays): Neck, Day-To-Day
- Danny Jansen (Toronto Blue Jays): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Alek Manoah (Toronto Blue Jays): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
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