- The Braves are -185 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Braves Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Pirates / Braves TV Channel: BSSE | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+150) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-185) on Friday, June 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta, GA.
This season, the Pirates are 39-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 37-42 ATS.
Pirates vs Braves Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Martin Perez 1-3, 4.77 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Charlie Morton 4-4, 4.29 ERA
Pirates vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -130 | O 9 -120 | +150 |
| Braves | -1.5 +105 | U 9 +100 | -185 |
Pirates vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s MLB game with 57.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Pirates vs Braves and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 31 games (+13.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 away games (+12.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+11.20 Units / 40% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+9.75 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 30 games (+19.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 37 games (+18.20 Units / 49% ROI)
- Orlando Arcia has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+16.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the RBIs Under in 38 of his last 50 games (+16.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- Adam Duvall has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+15.25 Units / 49% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 69 games (+16.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 36 games (+9.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 36 games (+6.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 41 games (+5.65 Units / 10% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 65 games (+23.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 34 games (+9.34 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.80 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+2.05 Units / 27% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 42-38 against the Run Line (+0.56 Units / 0.53% ROI).
- 39-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.4 Units / -4.69% ROI
- 37-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.6 Units / -6.31% ROI
- 39-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.87 Units / -1% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Braves are 37-42 against the Run Line (-5.2 Units / -5.68% ROI).
- 44-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.6 Units / -8.56% ROI
- 29-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.1 Units / -25.59% ROI
- 47-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +15.15 Units / 17.3% ROI
Braves vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Braves vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Braves vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcell Ozuna (ATL) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Austin Riley (ATL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Adam Duvall (ATL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
Braves vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Morton (ATL) | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +105 |
| Martin Perez (PIT) | 4.5 +125 | 4.5 -165 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Martin Perez has allowed a slugging percentage of .833 (45 Total Bases / 54 ABs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: .431 — 0 Percentile.
Martin Perez has located his fastball inside 54% of the time (206/381) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 31 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 14% (33/233) against Martin Perez on inside fastballs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 16% (44/268) against Martin Perez on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 95 total IP; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 56% of the time (222/400) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (337/762) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has walked 43 of 387 batters (11%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — sixth Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 56% of the time (222/400) with two-strikes this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Pirates are just 48-84 (.364) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Pirates are just 85-118 (.419) on the road since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .472.
The Pirates are just 16-25 (.390) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 72-102 (.414) after a win since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .511.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Braves are just 2-7 (.222) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .427.
The Braves are 5-3 (.625) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .421.
The Braves are 34-65 (.343) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .213.
The Braves are 49-22 (.690) after a home loss since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 54 strikeouts in 133 PA’s (41%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have 182 strikeouts in 515 PA’s (35%) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Pirates are batting just .152 with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
The Pirates are batting just .126 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .464 against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Braves hitters have an OBP of .380 (1,120 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .795 (6,915 PA’s) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .722.
Braves hitters are slugging .687 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .574.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,421 of 15,551 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .292 against Pirates pitchers with the shift this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Pirates pitchers have walked 7 of 53 batters (13%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Pirates pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 2,519 times since the 2022 season — 3rd most in MLB.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.5 MPH (1,838 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9.
The Braves pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.5 MPH this season (1,838 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
The Braves pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Evan White (Atlanta Braves): Hip, Day-To-Day
- Angel Perdomo (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Ian Anderson (Atlanta Braves): Elbow, Out
- Sean Murphy (Atlanta Braves): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
Bet now on Pirates vs Braves and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
