- The Guardians are -165 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Pirates / Guardians TV Channel: BSGL | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+140) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-165) on Saturday, August 31, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH.
This season, the Pirates are 62-72 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 67-68 ATS.
Pirates vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Luis Ortiz 0-0, 26.99 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Matthew Boyd 1-0, 2.70 ERA
Pirates vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -155 | O 8.5 -110 | +140 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +125 | U 8.5 -110 | -165 |
Pirates vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 56.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Yasmani Grandal has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 13 games (+23.90 Units / 184% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 22 away games (+14.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 34 games (+10.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 54% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 49 games (+22.50 Units / 46% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in 35 of his last 46 games (+18.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Under in 31 of his last 42 games (+14.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 44 games (+12.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+10.65 Units / 35% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 55 of their last 95 games (+13.20 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 57 games (+11.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 31 games (+8.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 43 away games (+2.05 Units / 4% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 61 games at home (+11.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 65 games at home (+11.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 62 games at home (+9.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.15 Units / 31% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 73-61 against the Run Line (+8.11 Units / 4.67% ROI).
- 62-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.75 Units / -7.61% ROI
- 65-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.55 Units / -3.73% ROI
- 64-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.57 Units / -4.49% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 67-68 against the Run Line (+1.45 Units / 0.86% ROI).
- 77-58 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.22 Units / 5.93% ROI
- 66-62 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.55 Units / -1.71% ROI
- 62-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.55 Units / -7.13% ROI
Guardians vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Guardians vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Will Brennan (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Guardians vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Guardians vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Ortiz (PIT) | 3.5 -115 | 3.5 -115 |
| Matthew Boyd (CLE) | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -140 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Ortiz has allowed an OPS of 1.189 (45 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (5 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .653 — first Percentile.
Luis Ortiz has allowed a slugging percentage of .811 (30 Total Bases / 37 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (5 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .371 — first Percentile.
Luis Ortiz has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 92.4 MPH in the 2023 season (287 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 89.2
Luis Ortiz allowed an average Exit Velocity of 92.4 MPH (287 batted balls) in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 89.2 — 0 Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Matthew Boyd has allowed an OBP of just .231 (65 PA’s) this month (3 games) — tied for 11th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: .314 — 93rd Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .169 (10-for-59) against Matthew Boyd this month (3 games) — 10th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: .251 — 94th Percentile.
Matthew Boyd has allowed a slugging percentage of just .205 (8 Total Bases / 39 ABs) at home this month (2 games) — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: .417 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .154 (6-for-39) against Matthew Boyd at home this month (2 games) — 10th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: .250 — 93rd Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Pirates are just 31-64 (.326) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .428.
The Pirates are just 51-6 (.895) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .946.
The Pirates are just 8-26 (.235) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .361.
The Pirates are just 147-34 (.812) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .866.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Guardians are 24-26 (.480) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .298.
The Guardians are just 2-50 (.038) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Guardians are 68-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .946.
The Guardians are 58-2 (.967) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .855.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .496 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.
Pirates hitters have 52 extra-base hits out of 192 total hits (just 27%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Pirates hitters have 439 strikeouts in 1,303 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Pirates are batting just .155 with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians are batting just .280 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .332.
Guardians hitters have just 2,263 strikeouts in 12,280 PA’s (18%) against RHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Guardians hitters had a Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 10.02 (53.0 IP) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.45.
The Pirates have allowed 10.67 runs per game (64/6) over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.81.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 6.20 (114.2 IP) over the last 14 days — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.09.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Pirates pitchers this month (26 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .195 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .261.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .224 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Guardians pitchers have won 48% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .220 against Guardians pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Guardians vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cleveland Guardians – No Injuries Reported
- Pittsburgh Pirates – No Injuries Reported
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