- The Mets are -120 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Mets Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Pirates / Mets TV Channel: SNY | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+105) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-125) on Tuesday, April 16, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Pirates are 11-6 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 8-8 ATS.
Pirates vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Jared Jones 1-2, 4.00 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Jose Quintana 1-1, 3.45 ERA
Pirates vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -200 | O 7.5 -115 | +105 |
| Mets | -1.5 +165 | U 7.5 -105 | -125 |
Pirates vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 54.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+9.60 Units / 96% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.00 Units / 61% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 away games (+8.00 Units / 61% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+7.55 Units / 46% ROI)
- Edward Olivares has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 away games (+6.55 Units / 20% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- DJ Stewart has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+7.85 Units / 56% ROI)
- Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jose Quintana has hit the Earned Runs Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jose Butto has hit the Strikeouts Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.75 Units / 78% ROI)
- Luis Severino has hit the Strikeouts Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.50 Units / 42% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 108 games (+16.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.95 Units / 25% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 12-5 against the Run Line (+6.95 Units / 29.32% ROI).
- 11-6 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.1 Units / 32.97% ROI
- 10-7 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.25 Units / 11.97% ROI
- 7-10 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.95 Units / -21.24% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 8-8 against the Run Line (+0.9 Units / 4.74% ROI).
- 8-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.75 Units / -3.89% ROI
- 8-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.75 Units / -4.31% ROI
- 8-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.95 Units / -5.34% ROI
Mets vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| DJ Stewart (NYM) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Mets vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Starling Marte (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Edward Olivares (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Mets vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Edward Olivares (PIT) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Starling Marte (NYM) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Mets vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Quintana (NYM) | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 40% (58/147) against Jared Jones this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 40% (58/147) against Jared Jones this season — best among in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Jared Jones has a strikeout rate of 35% (25 SO in 72 PAs) this season — 3rd best among in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 95th Percentile.
Jared Jones has struck out 41% (17/41) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 57% (142/249) against right-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 44% (43/97) when ahead in the count this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana has allowed three-ball counts to 34% of batters they faced (24/70 PA’s) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — first Percentile.
Jose Quintana has a strike rate of just 57% (164/287) this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Pirates are just 12-19 (.387) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Pirates are just 41-73 (.360) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Pirates were 34-8 (.810) when they had 10 or more hits in 2023 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Pirates are 15-6 (.714) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .589.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Mets were just 2-72 (.027) when trailing entering the 8th inning in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Mets are just 3-77 (.038) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .101.
The Mets were just 6-39 (.133) when allowing 10 or more hits in 2023 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Mets are just 12-66 (.154) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .217.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .500 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .577.
Pirates hitters have 379 strikeouts in 1,125 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Pirates are batting just .154 with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
The Pirates are batting just .233 against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OPS of .812 (247 PA’s) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Mets hitters have put 45% of their swings in play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Mets batted just .238 against LHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Mets hitters are slugging .464 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .379.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers are throwing just 3.58 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,228 of 13,146 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Pirates pitchers this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have walked 67 of 627 batters (11%) this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have walked 658 of 6,711 batters (10%) since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
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