- The Pirates are -105 favorites vs the Nationals
- Pirates / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (-105) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (-115) on Monday, April 1, 2024. First pitch is for this MLB matchup is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Pirates are 4-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 2-1 ATS.
Pirates vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | -1.5 +155 | O 8.5 -110 | -105 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -190 | U 8.5 -110 | -115 |
Pirates vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Monday‘s game with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Edward Olivares has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+8.70 Units / 35% ROI)
- Edward Olivares has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 12 away games (+8.10 Units / 64% ROI)
- Edward Olivares has hit the RBIs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+7.90 Units / 132% ROI)
- Mitch Keller has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 32 games (+7.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- Henry Davis has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+7.40 Units / 51% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josiah Gray has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+7.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- Josiah Gray has hit the Strikeouts Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- MacKenzie Gore has hit the Strikeouts Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.05 Units / 63% ROI)
- MacKenzie Gore has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- Patrick Corbin has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 10 of his last 14 games at home (+4.85 Units / 28% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 120 games (+15.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 134 games (+11.44 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 games (+10.67 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+10.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 66 of their last 144 games (+23.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+6.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 3 games (+3.15 Units / 94% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.50 Units / 41% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 4-0 against the Run Line (+4.55 Units / 72.8% ROI).
- 4-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.55 Units / 110.98% ROI
- 4-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +4 Units / 91.95% ROI
- 0-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.45 Units / -100% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 2-1 against the Run Line (+0.45 Units / 10.84% ROI).
- 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -13.33% ROI
- 3-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +3 Units / 92.31% ROI
- 0-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.35 Units / -100% ROI
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Marco Gonzales has averaged 88.6 MPH on fastballs since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — second Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has a strikeout rate of just 4% (2 SO in 52 PAs) in late innings since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has a strikeout rate of just 29% (137 SO in 467 PAs) with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (64/359) against Marco Gonzales with runners in scoring position since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
MacKenzie Gore walked 22 of 168 batters (13%) versus the bottom of the order in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has walked 33 of 260 batters (13%) versus the bottom of the order since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has walked 94 of 891 batters (10%) since last season — tied for 10th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 7% — seventh Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has walked 63 of 688 right-handed batters (9%) since last season — tied for 14th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 12th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Pirates were 34-8 (.810) when they had 10 or more hits in 2023 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Pirates are just 25-38 (.397) after a road win since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .493.
The Pirates are 14-6 (.700) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .586.
The Pirates are just 102-23 (.816) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .870.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Nationals are just 60-102 (.370) at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .525.
The Nationals are just 40-59 (.404) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .568.
The Nationals are just 39-63 (.382) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Nationals are just 46-80 (.365) after a win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .515.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters are slugging just .498 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .578.
The Pirates are batting just .154 with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
The Pirates are batting just .235 against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates have answered-back in just 22% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 37% at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters averaged just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters had 298 extra-base hits out of 950 total hits (just 31%) against RHP in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,192 of 12,620 batters (9%) since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 3,397 times since last season — 5th most in MLB.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 53% of their games on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 56% of their games since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 20% in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have allowed an OBP of .358 (2,862 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Nationals vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
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