- The Reds are -135 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Reds Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Pirates / Reds TV Channel: BSOH | SNPT | MLBN
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+105) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-125) on Wednesday, June 26, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Pirates are 38-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 44-35 ATS.
Pirates vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Luis Ortiz 0-0, 26.99 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Graham Ashcraft 4-3, 5.14 ERA
Pirates vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -175 | O 10 -110 | +105 |
| Reds | -1.5 +145 | U 10 -110 | -125 |
Pirates vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 53.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 30 games (+14.45 Units / 48% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+13.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 19 away games (+12.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.10 Units / 45% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 34 games (+10.75 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 27 of his last 46 games (+17.05 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 28 games (+16.60 Units / 59% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 41 games (+11.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Will Benson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+11.25 Units / 74% ROI)
- Jake Fraley has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+10.45 Units / 45% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 68 games (+17.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 35 games (+8.80 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.70 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 35 games (+5.10 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 40 games (+4.65 Units / 9% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 63 games (+13.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 27 games at home (+12.25 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 61 games (+10.00 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 29 games (+8.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games (+6.20 Units / 18% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 41-38 against the Run Line (-0.44 Units / -0.43% ROI).
- 38-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.55 Units / -5.98% ROI
- 37-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.5 Units / -5.14% ROI
- 38-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.87 Units / -2.17% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 44-35 against the Run Line (+6.15 Units / 5.86% ROI).
- 37-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.85 Units / -6.33% ROI
- 34-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.7 Units / -14.58% ROI
- 42-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.3 Units / 4.95% ROI
Reds vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Connor Joe (PIT) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Reds vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Santiago Espinal (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jake Fraley (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Reds vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -135 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jake Fraley (CIN) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Reds vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Graham Ashcraft (CIN) | 5.5 +130 | 5.5 -165 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (11/65) against Luis Ortiz on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 5th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 20% (72/358) against Luis Ortiz this season — 10th lowest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 27% — ninth Percentile.
Luis Ortiz has walked 42 of 317 batters (13%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 95 total IP; League Avg: 8% — third Percentile.
Luis Ortiz has walked 12 of 78 left-handed batters (15%) this season — 8th highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 10% — seventh Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Graham Ashcraft has an ERA of 7.29 (100.0 IP) against division opponents since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 3.96 — 0 Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has located his fastball inside 48% of the time (108/226) this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 97th Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has allowed an OBP of .368 (729 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: .306 — second Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .295 (191-for-648) against Graham Ashcraft since the 2022 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: .247 — third Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Pirates are just 19-30 (.388) after a road win since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .480.
The Pirates are 54-13 (.806) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .736.
The Pirates are just 28-47 (.373) after a road win since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .485.
The Pirates are just 3-22 (.120) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Reds are just 1-7 (.125) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 9-18 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 26-29 (.473) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .587.
The Reds are just 53-56 (.486) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .637.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 52 strikeouts in 130 PA’s (40%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Pirates are batting just .126 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Pirates hitters have 410 strikeouts in 1,207 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .175 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .212.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .114 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .153.
Reds hitters have an OBP of .332 (2,610 PA’s) against LHP since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .320.
The Reds are batting just .174 on breaking pitches this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Reds hitters are slugging just .155 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 7 of 53 batters (13%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Pirates pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 53% of their games since last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 54 of 837 batters (7%) this month (22 games) — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,420 of 15,520 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,468 of 15,487 batters (10%) since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
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