- The Yankees are -200 favorites vs the Pirates
- Pirates vs Yankees Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Pirates / Yankees TV Channel: YES | SNPT
The Pittsburgh Pirates (+150) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-185) on Sunday, September 29, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 3:05pm EDT in New York City, NY.
This season, the Pirates are 76-85 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 83-78 ATS.
Pirates vs Yankees Starting Pitchers Today:
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 8-9, 4.27 ERA
- Yankees starting pitcher: Clarke Schmidt 5-5, 2.54 ERA
Pirates vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Pirates | +1.5 -135 | O 8 +100 | +150 |
| Yankees | -1.5 +115 | U 8 -120 | -185 |
Pirates vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 61.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Bets Today:
- Billy Cook has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 away games (+19.80 Units / 330% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 44 games (+14.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- Yasmani Grandal has hit the Walks Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+11.15 Units / 91% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 18 away games (+10.15 Units / 52% ROI)
- Joey Bart has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 17 away games (+8.60 Units / 48% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Gleyber Torres has hit the Singles Over in 39 of his last 49 games (+26.10 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 35 games (+15.50 Units / 44% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 21 games at home (+14.45 Units / 69% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 26 of his last 36 games (+14.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jose Trevino has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+14.00 Units / 86% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 73 away games (+8.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+6.90 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 away games (+6.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 67 of their last 122 games (+6.75 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.95 Units / 48% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 62 of their last 104 games (+19.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 68 of their last 127 games (+12.85 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 30 of their last 47 games (+10.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 29 of their last 49 games (+6.80 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+1.10 Units / 4% ROI)
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 85-76 against the Run Line (+1.7 Units / 0.81% ROI).
- 76-85 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.85 Units / -5.28% ROI
- 76-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.35 Units / -6.9% ROI
- 80-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.3 Units / -1.31% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 83-78 against the Run Line (+9.2 Units / 4.76% ROI).
- 93-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.7 Units / -5.36% ROI
- 85-70 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.5 Units / 4.22% ROI
- 70-85 when betting on the total runs Under for -23.25 Units / -13.16% ROI
Yankees vs Pirates Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -275 |
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -350 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
Yankees vs Pirates Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa (PIT) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Gleyber Torres (NYY) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Yankees vs Pirates RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -135 |
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr (NYY) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jasson Dominguez (NYY) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Yankees vs Pirates Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Clarke Schmidt (NYY) | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +120 |
| Bailey Falter (PIT) | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -160 |
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Falter had a first-pitch strike rate of just 35% (8/23) in his last start — lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 30% (46/151) against Bailey Falter with runners in scoring position since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 128 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Bailey Falter has an average spin rate of 1939.7 RPM on curveballs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 128 total IP; League Avg: 2532.1 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 16% (38/234) against Bailey Falter with runners in scoring position this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Clarke Schmidt has a first-pitch strike rate of just 43% (9/21) over the past seven days (1 games) — tied for 2nd lowest among AL Starters over the last week; League Avg: 63% — fifth Percentile.
The average home run distance against Clarke Schmidt since last season is 382.5 feet — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 128 total IP; League Avg: 398.5
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 19% (86/443) against Clarke Schmidt since the 2022 season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 192 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 96th Percentile.
Clarke Schmidt had an average spin rate of 2627.0 RPM on fastballs in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 2239.5 — 100th Percentile.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Pirates are just 62-7 (.899) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Pirates are just 6-44 (.120) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Pirates are just 9-30 (.231) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .357.
The Pirates are just 18-30 (.375) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Yankees are 27-20 (.574) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .412.
The Yankees are 47-10 (.825) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .643.
The Yankees are 78-23 (.772) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .627.
The Yankees are 6-3 (.667) after a win as underdogs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 448 strikeouts in 1,336 PA’s (34%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have 1,375 strikeouts in 5,407 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .509 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .578.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .503 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .572.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have drawn 217 walks in 1,789 PA’s (12%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have drawn 376 walks in 3,603 PA’s (10%) against starting pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have drawn 448 walks in 4,422 PA’s (10%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have a swing rate of just 45% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,690 of 18,626 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 4.50 (2209.0 IP) at home since the 2022 season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.01.
Pirates pitchers have allowed a run 33% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
The longest HR allowed by the Pirates pitchers in the 2023 season traveled 454.0 feet — — 2nd shortest in MLB; League Avg: 465.8
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Yankees pitchers since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Yankees pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .210 against Yankees pitchers with the shift since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Yankees pitchers have an ERA of 3.51 (712.2 IP) on the road this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.18.
Yankees vs. Pirates Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- New York Yankees – No Injuries Reported
- Pittsburgh Pirates – No Injuries Reported
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