- The Astros are -155 favorites vs the Rays
- Rays vs Astros Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Rays / Astros TV Channel: SCHN | BSUN
The Tampa Bay Rays (+140) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-165) on Sunday, August 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Houston, TX.
This season, the Rays are 56-54 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 54-56 ATS.
Rays vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:
- Rays starting pitcher: Hunter Bigge 0-0, 1.69 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Spencer Arrighetti 4-9, 5.62 ERA
Rays vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | +1.5 -150 | O 8.5 -105 | +140 |
| Astros | -1.5 +125 | U 8.5 -115 | -165 |
Rays vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 54.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Brandon Lowe has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 22 away games (+18.60 Units / 85% ROI)
- Alex Jackson has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 34 games (+14.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 30 games (+13.30 Units / 26% ROI)
- Alex Jackson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+12.95 Units / 40% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 44 games (+10.40 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 50 games (+16.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 25 games at home (+13.90 Units / 56% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+12.60 Units / 19% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+12.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.20 Units / 44% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 66 of their last 107 games (+21.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 39 games (+12.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 58 of their last 101 games (+10.90 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 34 games (+7.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 34 away games (+6.30 Units / 18% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 93 games (+15.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 52 games (+11.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 37 games (+8.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 42 of their last 74 games (+5.80 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games at home (+4.95 Units / 15% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 55-55 against the Run Line (-3 Units / -2.05% ROI).
- 56-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.35 Units / -6.09% ROI
- 52-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.2 Units / -6.77% ROI
- 55-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.8 Units / -1.49% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 54-56 against the Run Line (-1.75 Units / -1.29% ROI).
- 57-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.15 Units / -7.17% ROI
- 44-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.75 Units / -20.55% ROI
- 63-44 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.5 Units / 11.9% ROI
Astros vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Christopher Morel (TB) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Astros vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
Astros vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Christopher Morel (TB) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Astros vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 -110 |
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hunter Bigge has limited playing time.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Spencer Arrighetti has allowed a slugging percentage of .692 (27 Total Bases / 39 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 43 total IP; League Avg: .406 — second Percentile.
Spencer Arrighetti has allowed an OPS of 1.056 (160 PA’s) versus the top of the order this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 43 total IP; League Avg: .753 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 22% (8/36) against Spencer Arrighetti in his last two starts — 2nd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Spencer Arrighetti has walked 17 of 162 batters (10%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 43 total IP; League Avg: 7% — seventh Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Rays are just 22-44 (.333) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Rays are 9-44 (.170) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .106.
The Rays are 56-4 (.933) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Rays are 78-10 (.886) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .799.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Astros are just 0-40 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .056.
The Astros are just 3-9 (.250) after a loss as underdogs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .443.
The Astros are 113-32 (.779) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .699.
The Astros are 18-17 (.514) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .423.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Rays hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
The Rays are batting .266 against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .252.
The Rays scored first in 64% of their games in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters have just 851 strikeouts in 4,817 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
14% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (1,481/10,397 PA’s) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Astros hitters have just 203 strikeouts in 1,166 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Rays pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Rays pitchers have walked 248 of 3,874 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers this season is 387.1 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 397.5
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Astros pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- J.P. France (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kyle Tucker (Houston Astros): Lower Leg, 10-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Cristian Javier (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jeffrey Springs (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jonathan Aranda (Tampa Bay Rays): Oblique, 7-Day IL
- Ryan Pepiot (Tampa Bay Rays): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Yandy Diaz (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Out
- Garrett Acton (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane McClanahan (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wander Franco (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Out
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