- The Red Sox are -135 favorites vs the Rays
- Rays vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Rays / Red Sox TV Channel: NESN | BSUN
The Tampa Bay Rays (+115) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-135) on Friday, September 27, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Rays are 78-81 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 75-84 ATS.
Rays vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Rays starting pitcher: Taj Bradley 7-11, 4.29 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nick Pivetta 6-11, 4.20 ERA
Rays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | +1.5 -190 | O 8 -110 | +115 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +155 | U 8 -110 | -135 |
Rays vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Friday‘s MLB game with 53.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 12 games (+23.85 Units / 199% ROI)
- Junior Caminero has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 39 games (+13.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- Josh Lowe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.85 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+9.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+9.60 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Triston Casas has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 23 games at home (+16.50 Units / 72% ROI)
- Tyler O’Neill has hit the Singles Under in his last 14 games (+14.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Tyler O’Neill has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.90 Units / 44% ROI)
- Romy Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 33 games (+11.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 23 games at home (+11.00 Units / 23% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 94 of their last 156 games (+27.31 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 83 games (+21.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 88 of their last 150 games (+20.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 53 of their last 88 games (+10.80 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 86 games (+4.30 Units / 4% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games (+8.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games at home (+5.15 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.35 Units / 67% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 82-77 against the Run Line (-4.95 Units / -2.29% ROI).
- 78-81 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.15 Units / -5.37% ROI
- 67-86 when betting on the total runs Over for -26.5 Units / -15.21% ROI
- 86-67 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.6 Units / 7.17% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 75-84 against the Run Line (-19.6 Units / -9.24% ROI).
- 80-79 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.6 Units / -3.91% ROI
- 78-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -2 Units / -1.15% ROI
- 73-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.3 Units / -7.08% ROI
Red Sox vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Red Sox vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Vaughn Grissom (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jonny DeLuca (TB) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Red Sox vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Yandy Diaz (TB) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pivetta (BOS) | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
| Taj Bradley (TB) | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -155 |
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 17% (12/69) against Taj Bradley on inside fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 40% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .364 (12-for-33) against Taj Bradley when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (4 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .215 — first Percentile.
Taj Bradley has allowed an OPS of 1.053 (36 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (4 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .619 — first Percentile.
Taj Bradley has walked 4 of 109 batters (4%) with runners in scoring position this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 96th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of .784 (163 Total Bases / 208 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: .562 — 0 Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of .768 (308 Total Bases / 401 ABs) in non-two strike counts since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP; League Avg: .573 — 0 Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of .711 (499 Total Bases / 702 ABs) in non-two strike counts since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 192 total IP; League Avg: .562 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 36% (22/61) against Nick Pivetta with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Rays are 133-6 (.957) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .900.
The Rays are 44-14 (.759) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .573.
The Rays are 36-64 (.360) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .261.
The Rays are just 20-38 (.345) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .418.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Red Sox are just 37-38 (.493) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .582.
The Red Sox are just 3-139 (.021) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Red Sox are just 5-56 (.082) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .144.
The Red Sox are 25-20 (.556) after a road win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .463.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
The Rays scored first in 71% of their games against division opponents in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
The Rays scored first in 64% of their games in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 504 strikeouts in 1,799 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Red Sox are batting .385 in hitter’s counts this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Red Sox hitters have 1,242 strikeouts in 4,924 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters have grounded into 40 double plays in 332 opportunities (12%) in close and late situations since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 36% against Rays pitchers over the last 14 days — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Rays pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 199 of 2,864 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Boston Red Sox – No Injuries Reported
- Tampa Bay Rays – No Injuries Reported
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