- The Red Sox are -125 favorites vs the Rays
- Rays vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Rays / Red Sox TV Channel: NESN | BSUN | MLBN
The Tampa Bay Rays (+105) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-125) on Saturday, September 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Rays are 79-81 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 75-85 ATS.
Rays vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Rays starting pitcher: Shane Baz 3-3, 3.07 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford 9-15, 4.18 ERA
Rays vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | +1.5 -210 | O 7.5 -105 | +105 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +170 | U 7.5 -115 | -125 |
Rays vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 13 games (+22.85 Units / 176% ROI)
- Junior Caminero has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 40 games (+14.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- Junior Caminero has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 23 away games (+11.85 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+10.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.60 Units / 35% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Triston Casas has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 24 games at home (+15.50 Units / 65% ROI)
- Tyler O’Neill has hit the Singles Under in his last 14 games (+14.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Tyler O’Neill has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.90 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 24 games at home (+12.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- Romy Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 33 games (+11.85 Units / 20% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 95 of their last 157 games (+28.36 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 84 games (+22.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 89 of their last 151 games (+21.25 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 54 of their last 89 games (+11.80 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 87 games (+5.30 Units / 5% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games (+9.00 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 13 games at home (+4.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.15 Units / 35% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 83-77 against the Run Line (-3.95 Units / -1.81% ROI).
- 79-81 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.15 Units / -4.82% ROI
- 67-87 when betting on the total runs Over for -27.6 Units / -15.74% ROI
- 87-67 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.6 Units / 7.69% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 75-85 against the Run Line (-20.6 Units / -9.66% ROI).
- 80-80 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.8 Units / -4.5% ROI
- 78-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.1 Units / -1.77% ROI
- 74-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.3 Units / -6.46% ROI
Red Sox vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Josh Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jonathan Aranda (TB) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Red Sox vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Vaughn Grissom (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Red Sox vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Josh Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Christopher Morel (TB) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Red Sox vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shane Baz (TB) | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -105 |
| Kutter Crawford (BOS) | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -155 |
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane Baz has allowed a BABIP of .170 vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: .287 — 99th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .098 (5-for-51) against Shane Baz this month (4 games) — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 98th Percentile.
Shane Baz has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 11.1 innings pitched — Jose A. Ferrer has the longest active streak at 24.2.
Shane Baz has allowed a BABIP of .232 this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: .289 — 98th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kutter Crawford has allowed a slugging percentage of .978 (89 Total Bases / 91 ABs) when behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .593 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (173/512) against Kutter Crawford this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has allowed an OPS of 1.460 (112 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.038 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .250 (23-for-92) against Kutter Crawford on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .330 — 94th Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Rays are 61-4 (.938) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .798.
The Rays are 44-14 (.759) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .573.
The Rays are 133-6 (.957) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .900.
The Rays are 54-26 (.675) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .582.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Red Sox are just 37-38 (.493) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .582.
The Red Sox are just 3-139 (.021) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Red Sox are 25-20 (.556) after a road win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .463.
The Red Sox are just 33-136 (.195) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Rays hitters are slugging just .359 against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
26% of Rays hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rays hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 504 strikeouts in 1,805 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Red Sox are batting .269 at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Red Sox hitters have grounded into 14 double plays in 71 opportunities (20%) over the last 14 days — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Red Sox hitters have grounded into 40 double plays in 334 opportunities (12%) in close and late situations since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays pitchers have walked 1,264 of 17,879 batters (7%) since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 52% with two-strikes over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 199 of 2,873 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 25% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 94 of 1,438 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Red Sox vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Boston Red Sox – No Injuries Reported
- Tampa Bay Rays – No Injuries Reported
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