- The Rays are -115 favorites vs the Royals
- Rays vs Royals Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Rays / Royals TV Channel: BSKC | BSUN
The Tampa Bay Rays (-115) visit Ewing M. Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (-105) on Wednesday, July 3, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Kansas City, MO.
This season, the Rays are 43-42 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 49-38 ATS.
Rays vs Royals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Rays starting pitcher: Ryan Pepiot 4-4, 4.40 ERA
- Royals starting pitcher: Michael Wacha 4-6, 3.94 ERA
Rays vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rays | -1.5 +145 | O 8 +100 | -115 |
| Royals | +1.5 -175 | U 8 -120 | -105 |
Rays vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ben Rortvedt has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+20.00 Units / 286% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+12.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+12.60 Units / 56% ROI)
- Jonny Deluca has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.10 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Under in 26 of his last 31 games (+18.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+14.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- Maikel Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+13.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 23 games at home (+12.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- Michael Massey has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games at home (+12.00 Units / 120% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 54 of their last 82 games (+24.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 22 away games (+11.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 away games (+7.80 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 76 games (+6.35 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.45 Units / 30% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 45 games at home (+13.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+10.24 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+8.40 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 45 games at home (+5.00 Units / 8% ROI)
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 41-44 against the Run Line (-6.2 Units / -5.48% ROI).
- 43-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.85 Units / -7.3% ROI
- 42-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.7 Units / -2.9% ROI
- 41-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.2 Units / -5.54% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 49-38 against the Run Line (+3.39 Units / 2.84% ROI).
- 47-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.25 Units / 6.96% ROI
- 36-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.6 Units / -16.52% ROI
- 47-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.2 Units / 7.59% ROI
Royals vs Rays Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Hunter Renfroe (KC) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Isaac Paredes (TB) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
Royals vs Rays Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Randy Arozarena (TB) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Isaac Paredes (TB) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Josh Lowe (TB) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Royals vs Rays RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Isaac Paredes (TB) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Randy Arozarena (TB) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
Royals vs Rays Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Wacha (KC) | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
| Ryan Pepiot (TB) | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +110 |
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryan Pepiot has allowed a slugging percentage of .557 (39 Total Bases / 70 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: .310 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .195 (80-for-410) against Ryan Pepiot since last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 97 total IP; League Avg: .248 — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 35% (93/268) against Ryan Pepiot on fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .119 (15-for-126) against Ryan Pepiot’s fastball this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: .258 — 100th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 48% of the time (805/1,660) with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 162 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 99th Percentile.
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 50% of the time (182/364) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total CH; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 49% of the time (518/1,062) with two-strikes since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 97 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 98th Percentile.
Michael Wacha has allowed an OPS of just .457 (126 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: .686 — 100th Percentile.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Rays are just 20-39 (.339) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .412.
The Rays are 43-19 (.694) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .560.
The Rays are 10-6 (.625) after a road loss this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .479.
The Rays are 29-52 (.358) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Royals are just 19-95 (.167) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Royals are just 23-54 (.299) after a road win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .484.
The Royals are just 24-106 (.185) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Royals are just 43-82 (.344) after a road loss since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .460.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays are batting .265 against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .252.
27% of Rays hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Rays scored first in 64% of their games in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays hitters have 181 strikeouts in 554 PA’s (33%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .280 (4,432 PA’s) on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
The Royals have won just 53% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of .369 (384 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .331.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 33% on the road since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Rays pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The average home run distance against the Royals pitchers this season is 405.1 feet — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 397.2
The Royals won just 18% of games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 41% with two-strikes since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals vs. Rays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Austin Cox (Kansas City Royals): Knee, Day-To-Day
- Michael Massey (Kansas City Royals): Back, 10-Day IL
- Jake Brentz (Kansas City Royals): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Biceps, 15-Day IL
- Carlos Hernandez (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Kris Bubic (Kansas City Royals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Taylor Walls (Tampa Bay Rays): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Jonny DeLuca (Tampa Bay Rays): Hand, 10-Day IL
- Jeffrey Springs (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane Baz (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Jonathan Aranda (Tampa Bay Rays): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Taj Bradley (Tampa Bay Rays): Pectoral, 15-Day IL
- Josh Lowe (Tampa Bay Rays): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Junior Caminero (Tampa Bay Rays): Quadriceps, Day-To-Day
- Garrett Acton (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, Out
- Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane McClanahan (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wander Franco (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Suspension
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