- The Red Sox are +105 favorites vs the Astros
- Red Sox vs Astros Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Red Sox / Astros TV Channel: NESN | SCHN
The Boston Red Sox (+115) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-135) on Monday, August 19, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston, TX.
This season, the Red Sox are 65-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 62-61 ATS.
Red Sox vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck 8-8, 3.01 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Yusei Kikuchi 6-9, 4.50 ERA
Red Sox vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -200 | O 8 -105 | +115 |
| Astros | -1.5 +165 | U 8 -115 | -135 |
Red Sox vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Monday‘s MLB game with 53.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 25 away games (+24.00 Units / 96% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 34 games (+16.35 Units / 42% ROI)
- Romy Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 17 away games (+15.90 Units / 54% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Runs Over in 26 of his last 47 games (+14.60 Units / 31% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 26 of his last 40 games (+12.00 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 33 games (+33.20 Units / 101% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 47 games (+15.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 48 games (+13.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+11.45 Units / 36% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Walks Over in 22 of his last 40 games (+10.80 Units / 27% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 80 games (+21.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 39 of their last 59 away games (+14.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 59 away games (+11.75 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 69 of their last 123 games (+7.75 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 62 of their last 123 games (+7.55 Units / 5% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 64 of their last 106 games (+19.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 65 games (+14.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 50 games (+13.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 29 games (+10.20 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.65 Units / 29% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 57-66 against the Run Line (-18.1 Units / -11.01% ROI).
- 65-58 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.75 Units / 0.5% ROI
- 64-53 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.05 Units / 4.46% ROI
- 53-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.8 Units / -12.44% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 62-61 against the Run Line (+2.1 Units / 1.38% ROI).
- 67-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.25 Units / -3.51% ROI
- 48-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -30.45 Units / -22.66% ROI
- 72-48 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.95 Units / 13.89% ROI
Astros vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Danny Jansen (BOS) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Triston Casas (BOS) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Astros vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Rob Refsnyder (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Astros vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jeremy Pena (HOU) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Astros vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tanner Houck (BOS) | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
| Yusei Kikuchi (HOU) | 7.5 +120 | 7.5 -155 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 58% (134/231) against Tanner Houck this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has allowed a slugging percentage of just .243 (49 Total Bases / 202 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .389 — 100th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has allowed a slugging percentage of just .284 (82 Total Bases / 289 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .407 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% (240/433) against Tanner Houck this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 95th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yusei Kikuchi has a strikeout rate of 56% (15 SO in 27 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (3 games) — best among among AL Starters; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Yusei Kikuchi has a strikeout rate of 56% (15 SO in 27 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (3 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .226 (12-for-53) against Yusei Kikuchi on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .332 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .349 (52 GB hits out of 149 GBs) against Yusei Kikuchi this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .241 — first Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Red Sox are just 3-122 (.024) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Red Sox are 22-15 (.595) after a road win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .469.
The Red Sox are 53-11 (.828) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Red Sox are just 28-116 (.194) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .269.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Astros are just 0-42 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .054.
The Astros are 78-53 (.595) after a road win since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .487.
The Astros are 121-21 (.852) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .790.
The Astros are 17-13 (.567) after a road win this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .469.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .780 (3,348 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
The Red Sox are batting .261 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .440 against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .451 against RHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have an OPS of .857 (821 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .682.
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters have just 569 strikeouts in 3,113 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 890 strikeouts in 4,963 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 13% with runners in scoring position this month (16 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 12% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have walked 437 of 4,600 batters (10%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 35% with runners in scoring position this month (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% this month (15 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Neck, 15-Day IL
- Penn Murfee (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jose Urquidy (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- J.P. France (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kyle Tucker (Houston Astros): Lower Leg, 10-Day IL
- Bennett Sousa (Houston Astros): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Cristian Javier (Houston Astros): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Isaiah Campbell (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 7-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Story (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Chest, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Chris Martin (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Justin Slaten (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Garrett Whitlock (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Triston Casas (Boston Red Sox): Ribs, 60-Day IL
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