- The Mets are -125 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox vs Mets Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Red Sox / Mets TV Channel: SNY | NESN | ESPN+ | MLBN
The Boston Red Sox (+105) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-125) on Monday, September 2, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Red Sox are 70-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 68-69 ATS.
Red Sox vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 12-6, 4.70 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Luis Severino 9-6, 3.94 ERA
Red Sox vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -210 | O 7.5 -105 | +105 |
| Mets | -1.5 +170 | U 7.5 -115 | -125 |
Red Sox vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Monday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 40 games (+32.80 Units / 82% ROI)
- Romy Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 21 away games (+19.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+11.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- Brayan Bello has hit the Strikeouts Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+9.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.05 Units / 47% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 41 games (+24.00 Units / 59% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 44 games (+18.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 43 games (+12.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+11.45 Units / 43% ROI)
- Mark Vientos has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 11 games at home (+10.70 Units / 97% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 42 of their last 65 away games (+14.65 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 47 away games (+13.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 65 away games (+11.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 away games (+7.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 75 of their last 137 games (+5.45 Units / 3% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 78 games (+14.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 35 games at home (+13.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 48 of their last 89 games (+12.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+10.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 42 games (+9.70 Units / 20% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 63-74 against the Run Line (-18.75 Units / -10.38% ROI).
- 70-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.95 Units / -2.37% ROI
- 70-60 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.35 Units / 2.9% ROI
- 60-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.4 Units / -10.98% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 68-69 against the Run Line (-5.65 Units / -3.22% ROI).
- 73-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.35 Units / 0.79% ROI
- 67-64 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.85 Units / -2.56% ROI
- 64-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.8 Units / -5.99% ROI
Mets vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Mets vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Mets vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Mets vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brayan Bello (BOS) | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
| Luis Severino (NYM) | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -150 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .258 (136-for-528) against Brayan Bello this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — 16th Percentile.
Brayan Bello has allowed an OBP of .360 (225 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .294 — third Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 29% (54/185) against Brayan Bello this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (223/375) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 96th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Severino has allowed a slugging percentage of .593 (48 Total Bases / 81 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .399 — sixth Percentile.
Luis Severino has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (271/644) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Severino has a strikeout rate of just 18% (43 SO in 232 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 16th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .202 (43-for-213) against Luis Severino when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 89th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Red Sox are just 35-36 (.493) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .580.
The Red Sox are just 30-124 (.195) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The Red Sox are just 18-19 (.486) after a home loss this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Red Sox are just 3-130 (.023) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Mets are just 54-13 (.806) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .897.
The Mets are 6-53 (.102) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Mets are just 57-6 (.905) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .947.
The Mets are just 50-14 (.781) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .855.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .394 in hitter’s counts this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Red Sox hitters have 810 strikeouts in 3,158 PA’s (26%) against LHP since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have 1,180 strikeouts in 4,705 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OPS of .764 (1,390 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .324 (8,983 PA’s) on the road since the 2022 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .349 (602 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .327.
Mets hitters have 128 extra-base hits out of 323 total hits (40%) against LHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 378 of 5,218 batters (7%) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have won 42% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% over the last 14 days — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 185 of 2,668 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 247 of 2,636 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have walked 512 of 5,200 batters (10%) this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have walked 1,103 of 11,284 batters (10%) since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
- Boston Red Sox – No Injuries Reported
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