- The Mets are -135 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox vs Mets Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Red Sox / Mets TV Channel: SNY | NESN | TBS
The Boston Red Sox (+115) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-135) on Tuesday, September 3, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Red Sox are 70-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 69-69 ATS.
Red Sox vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford 8-12, 4.14 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson 8-1, 2.84 ERA
Red Sox vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -200 | O 8 -105 | +115 |
| Mets | -1.5 +165 | U 8 -115 | -135 |
Red Sox vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 53.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 41 games (+31.80 Units / 78% ROI)
- Romy Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 21 away games (+19.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+12.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.05 Units / 47% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.95 Units / 67% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 42 games (+23.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 45 games (+19.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 44 games (+13.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.75 Units / 46% ROI)
- David Peterson has hit the Earned Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.70 Units / 54% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 42 of their last 66 away games (+13.25 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 48 away games (+12.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 66 away games (+10.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 away games (+5.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 75 of their last 138 games (+3.85 Units / 2% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 50 of their last 79 games (+15.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 36 games at home (+14.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 49 of their last 90 games (+13.75 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 31 games at home (+12.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 45 of their last 80 games (+9.65 Units / 10% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 63-75 against the Run Line (-20.8 Units / -11.38% ROI).
- 70-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -5 Units / -2.99% ROI
- 70-61 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.25 Units / 2.15% ROI
- 61-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.4 Units / -10.23% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 69-69 against the Run Line (-3.9 Units / -2.21% ROI).
- 74-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.35 Units / 1.36% ROI
- 67-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.95 Units / -3.27% ROI
- 65-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.8 Units / -5.27% ROI
Mets vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
Mets vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Rob Refsnyder (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jose Iglesias (NYM) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Mets vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Vientos (NYM) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Mets vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kutter Crawford (BOS) | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +125 |
| David Peterson (NYM) | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +105 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 32% (51/162) against Kutter Crawford in two-strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 36% (80/222) against Kutter Crawford this season — tied for 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 11th Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has allowed an OBP of just .260 (242 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .293 — 87th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 21% (93/446) against Kutter Crawford this season — 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 92nd Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
David Peterson has a strike rate of just 61% (2,419/3,989) against right-handed batters since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
David Peterson has walked 111 of 1,006 right-handed batters (11%) since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total IP; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .386 (17-for-44) against David Peterson in late innings since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: .243 — first Percentile.
David Peterson has allowed an OBP of .308 (455 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: .245 — first Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Red Sox are 9-3 (.750) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 4-49 (.075) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .144.
The Red Sox are just 3-131 (.022) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Red Sox are just 5-197 (.025) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Mets are 6-53 (.102) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
The Mets are just 14-64 (.179) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Mets are just 51-14 (.785) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Mets are 20-14 (.588) after a road loss this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OPS of .764 (1,390 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .325 (12,342 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Mets are batting .261 on the road this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Mets are batting .179 with two-strikes since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 380 of 5,251 batters (7%) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes over the last 14 days — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Red Sox pitchers have won 40% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 1,106 of 11,318 batters (10%) since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Mets pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
- Boston Red Sox – No Injuries Reported
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