- The Orioles are -125 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox vs Orioles Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Red Sox / Orioles TV Channel: MASN | NESN
The Boston Red Sox (+105) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-125) on Saturday, August 17, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Baltimore, MD.
This season, the Red Sox are 64-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 66-57 ATS.
Red Sox vs Orioles Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 10-5, 5.00 ERA
- Orioles starting pitcher: Cade Povich 1-5, 6.33 ERA
Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -200 | O 9.5 -110 | +105 |
| Orioles | -1.5 +165 | U 9.5 -110 | -125 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 54.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 24 away games (+31.80 Units / 133% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Runs Over in 28 of his last 50 games (+16.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- Romy Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 16 away games (+14.90 Units / 55% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 32 games (+14.35 Units / 40% ROI)
- Wilyer Abreu has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 22 games (+11.85 Units / 54% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Holliday has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 15 games (+29.10 Units / 194% ROI)
- Colton Cowser has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 29 games (+22.00 Units / 64% ROI)
- Colton Cowser has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 26 games (+14.20 Units / 52% ROI)
- Colton Cowser has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 27 games (+14.05 Units / 41% ROI)
- Anthony Santander has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 39 games (+13.20 Units / 17% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 78 games (+23.45 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 38 of their last 57 away games (+15.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 57 away games (+11.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 62 of their last 121 games (+8.65 Units / 5% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 62 of their last 114 games (+17.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 76 games (+16.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 64 of their last 108 games (+12.65 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+2.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 35% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 56-65 against the Run Line (-17.3 Units / -10.77% ROI).
- 64-57 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.75 Units / 0.51% ROI
- 64-51 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.3 Units / 6.22% ROI
- 51-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -18.8 Units / -14.14% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 66-57 against the Run Line (+17.75 Units / 12.46% ROI).
- 72-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.65 Units / 0.93% ROI
- 68-44 when betting on the total runs Over for +20.25 Units / 15.17% ROI
- 44-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -31.15 Units / -23.07% ROI
Orioles vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Triston Casas (BOS) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Colton Cowser (BAL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Orioles vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cade Povich (BAL) | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +130 |
| Brayan Bello (BOS) | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (177/295) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 113 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 36% (29/80) against Brayan Bello on sliders this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (211/353) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 178 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .335 (108-for-322) against Brayan Bello when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 178 total IP; League Avg: .243 — first Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Red Sox are just 5-187 (.026) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Red Sox are just 28-115 (.196) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
The Red Sox are just 3-121 (.024) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Red Sox are 42-34 (.553) after a road win since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Orioles are 57-45 (.559) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Orioles are 11-15 (.423) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Orioles are 33-76 (.303) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Orioles are 33-41 (.446) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .304.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .780 (3,305 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
Red Sox hitters have 391 strikeouts in 1,399 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .765 (7,901 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Red Sox are batting .261 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .235.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have an OPS of .795 (1,491 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .688.
Orioles hitters are slugging .455 against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Orioles hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Orioles hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 333 of 4,630 batters (7%) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% with runners in scoring position this month (14 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .207 against Orioles pitchers with the shift since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Orioles have won 46% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Orioles pitchers have walked 273 of 3,995 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 59 double plays in 765 opportunities (8%) this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Orioles vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jonathan Heasley (Baltimore Orioles): Shoulder, Out
- Felix Bautista (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Danny Coulombe (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- John Means (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Tyler Wells (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jorge Mateo (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Isaiah Campbell (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 7-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Trevor Story (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Chest, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Chris Martin (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Justin Slaten (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Garrett Whitlock (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Triston Casas (Boston Red Sox): Ribs, 60-Day IL
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