- The Orioles are -165 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox vs Orioles Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Red Sox / Orioles TV Channel: MASN | NESN
The Boston Red Sox (+140) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-165) on Tuesday, May 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Baltimore, MD.
This season, the Red Sox are 27-27 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 28-24 ATS.
Red Sox vs Orioles Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 5-2, 4.08 ERA
- Orioles starting pitcher: Grayson Rodriguez 5-1, 3.23 ERA
Red Sox vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -145 | O 8 -105 | +140 |
| Orioles | -1.5 +120 | U 8 -115 | -165 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 58.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 15 away games (+15.85 Units / 106% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 42 games (+15.20 Units / 34% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 19 games (+13.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+12.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- Tyler O’Neill has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.65 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 19 games at home (+27.80 Units / 146% ROI)
- Jorge Mateo has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 23 games (+18.20 Units / 79% ROI)
- Gunnar Henderson has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 23 games at home (+15.80 Units / 69% ROI)
- Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 16 games at home (+14.75 Units / 43% ROI)
- Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+11.60 Units / 61% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 41 games (+11.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 25 away games (+6.25 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+5.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 28 away games (+5.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 28 away games (+5.30 Units / 16% ROI)
Orioles Best Bets Today:
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 37 games (+12.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 19 games at home (+9.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 43 games (+8.10 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+6.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 76% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 24-30 against the Run Line (-10.75 Units / -14.57% ROI).
- 27-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.3 Units / -3.59% ROI
- 20-31 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.45 Units / -22.8% ROI
- 31-20 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.1 Units / 15.2% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 28-24 against the Run Line (+7.95 Units / 13.11% ROI).
- 34-18 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.1 Units / 10.71% ROI
- 26-19 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.35 Units / 9.56% ROI
- 19-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.75 Units / -17.32% ROI
Orioles vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Vaughn Grissom (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Dominic Smith (BOS) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Orioles vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jordan Westburg (BAL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Anthony Santander (BAL) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brayan Bello (BOS) | 3.5 -175 | 3.5 +130 |
| Grayson Rodriguez (BAL) | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -135 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 16% (64/394) against Brayan Bello since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 14% (46/317) against Brayan Bello since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 85 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 18% (112/609) against Brayan Bello since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 85 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (440/793) against Brayan Bello since the 2022 season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .511 (23-for-45) against Grayson Rodriguez on low fastballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 85 total IP; League Avg: .273 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 43% (41/96) against Grayson Rodriguez when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Grayson Rodriguez has a strike rate of just 57% (122/213) in two strike counts this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Grayson Rodriguez has a strikeout rate of 40% (19 SO in 48 PAs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 20 total IP; League Avg: 19% — 99th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Red Sox are just 16-151 (.096) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .133.
The Red Sox are just 24-26 (.480) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .571.
The Red Sox are just 23-35 (.397) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.
The Red Sox are just 47-63 (.427) after a loss since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .492.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Orioles are 18-6 (.750) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are 55-41 (.573) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .413.
The Orioles are 45-24 (.652) after a road win since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
The Orioles are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 155 strikeouts in 534 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox hitters have 70 strikeouts in 245 PA’s (29%) against LHP this month (22 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have 523 strikeouts in 2,112 PA’s (25%) against LHP since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters are slugging .487 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .386.
Orioles hitters have an OPS of .821 (591 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
Orioles hitters have 61 extra-base hits out of 146 total hits (42%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Orioles hitters have an OBP of .334 (591 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 141 of 2,002 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 75% of their games this month (24 games) — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 30 of 484 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
The Orioles have won 52% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Orioles pitchers have won 44% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Orioles have have still managed to win 47% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Orioles pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Orioles vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Felix Bautista (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Terrin Vavra (Baltimore Orioles): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- John Means (Baltimore Orioles): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Kyle Bradish (Baltimore Orioles): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Cionel Perez (Baltimore Orioles): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
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