- The Red Sox are -110 favorites vs the Rays
- Red Sox vs Rays Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Red Sox / Rays TV Channel: NESN | BSUN
The Boston Red Sox (-110) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-110) on Monday, May 20, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:50pm EDT in St. Petersburg, FL.
This season, the Red Sox are 23-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 23-25 ATS.
Red Sox vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck 3-5, 2.16 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Taj Bradley 1-1, 2.46 ERA
Red Sox vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +155 | O 7.5 -115 | -110 |
| Rays | +1.5 -190 | U 7.5 -105 | -110 |
Red Sox vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Monday‘s MLB game with 52.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Home Runs Over in his last 5 games (+17.85 Units / 357% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 35 games (+11.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- Vaughn Grissom has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.45 Units / 52% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.90 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games at home (+19.00 Units / 190% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 45 games (+14.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+13.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 23 games (+12.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 14 games at home (+10.15 Units / 66% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games (+9.95 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 47 games (+7.70 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.15 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 24 away games (+5.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.00 Units / 25% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 45 games (+18.90 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.30 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+5.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.00 Units / 30% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 21-26 against the Run Line (-9.3 Units / -14.55% ROI).
- 23-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.95 Units / -5.28% ROI
- 18-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.15 Units / -21.78% ROI
- 27-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.2 Units / 13.78% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 23-25 against the Run Line (-2.25 Units / -3.59% ROI).
- 25-23 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.4 Units / -8.6% ROI
- 25-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.2 Units / -0.38% ROI
- 23-25 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.6 Units / -8.68% ROI
Rays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Rays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Josh Lowe (TB) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Vaughn Grissom (BOS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Rays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Josh Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Isaac Paredes (TB) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Rays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tanner Houck (BOS) | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -120 |
| Taj Bradley (TB) | 6.5 +125 | 6.5 -165 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 62% (59/95) against Tanner Houck this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has allowed an OPS of just .471 (81 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 2nd best among in MLB; League Avg: .654 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 57% (92/162) against Tanner Houck this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 97th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has located his fastball inside 47% of the time (122/259) this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a Hard-Hit Rate of 53% (83/156) against Taj Bradley against right-handed batters in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 41% — first Percentile.
Taj Bradley has allowed a slugging percentage of .936 (73 Total Bases / 78 ABs) when behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 81 total IP; League Avg: .614 — first Percentile.
Taj Bradley has allowed an OBP of just .111 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for 3rd best in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .285 — 96th Percentile.
Taj Bradley has allowed an OBP of .444 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for 2nd highest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .281 — sixth Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Red Sox are 79-7 (.919) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .857.
The Red Sox are just 3-160 (.018) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Red Sox are just 11-16 (.407) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 16-148 (.098) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .132.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Rays are just 16-33 (.327) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .414.
The Rays are 19-8 (.704) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are 38-25 (.603) after a home win since the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Rays are 28-14 (.667) after a home loss since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .512.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 139 strikeouts in 476 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of 1.320 (321 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.049.
The Red Sox are batting .270 at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rays scored first in 64% of their games in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays hitters have put just 33% of their swings in play against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Rays hitters have 164 strikeouts in 501 PA’s (33%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Rays hitters have put just 31% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 121 of 1,740 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 3.05 (421.1 IP) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.96.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 25 of 422 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The average home run distance against the Red Sox pitchers since last season is 394.7 feet — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 398.5
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays pitchers have walked 207 of 3,321 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays pitchers have walked 962 of 13,756 batters (7%) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taylor Walls (Tampa Bay Rays): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Jonny DeLuca (Tampa Bay Rays): Hand, 10-Day IL
- Jeffrey Springs (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane Baz (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Jonathan Aranda (Tampa Bay Rays): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Taj Bradley (Tampa Bay Rays): Pectoral, 15-Day IL
- Josh Lowe (Tampa Bay Rays): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Junior Caminero (Tampa Bay Rays): Quadriceps, Day-To-Day
- Garrett Acton (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, Out
- Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane McClanahan (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wander Franco (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Suspension
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
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