- The Rays are -140 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox vs Rays Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Red Sox / Rays TV Channel: NESN | BSUN | MLBN
The Boston Red Sox () visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays () on Wednesday, May 22, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:50pm EDT in St. Petersburg, FL.
This season, the Red Sox are 25-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 23-27 ATS.
Red Sox vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 4-2, 4.00 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Ryan Pepiot 3-2, 3.69 ERA
Red Sox vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | O | ||
| Rays | U |
Red Sox vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 54.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+20.05 Units / 286% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 37 games (+13.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+10.90 Units / 38% ROI)
- Tyler O’Neill has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+9.30 Units / 25% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 11 games at home (+18.00 Units / 164% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 46 games (+15.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+14.40 Units / 36% ROI)
- Isaac Paredes has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 15 games at home (+9.15 Units / 56% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 36 games (+11.95 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 49 games (+7.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 23 away games (+6.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 23 away games (+5.90 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.85 Units / 45% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 47 games (+20.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games (+6.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.60 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 41 games (+5.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+2.50 Units / 11% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 23-26 against the Run Line (-7.3 Units / -10.8% ROI).
- 25-24 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.7 Units / -1.21% ROI
- 18-29 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.25 Units / -24.86% ROI
- 29-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.2 Units / 16.87% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 23-27 against the Run Line (-4.25 Units / -6.57% ROI).
- 25-25 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.05 Units / -12.3% ROI
- 25-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.3 Units / -4.2% ROI
- 25-25 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.6 Units / -4.7% ROI
Rays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
Rays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Josh Lowe (TB) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Randy Arozarena (TB) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Rays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Randy Arozarena (TB) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Rays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cooper Criswell (BOS) | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +130 |
| Zack Littell (TB) | 5.5 +130 | 5.5 -165 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 15% (46/313) against Brayan Bello since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 16% (64/390) against Brayan Bello since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (133/223) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% (111/594) against Brayan Bello since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 82 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryan Pepiot has allowed a slugging percentage of .579 (22 Total Bases / 38 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: .308 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 46% (32/70) against Ryan Pepiot on elevated fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 33% (88/269) against Ryan Pepiot this season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 96th Percentile.
Ryan Pepiot has a strikeout rate of 29% (41 SO in 141 PAs) this season — tied for 14th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 18 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 91st Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Red Sox are just 22-34 (.393) after a home loss since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .513.
The Red Sox are just 3-160 (.018) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Red Sox are 152-12 (.927) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .905.
The Red Sox are just 43-55 (.439) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .518.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Rays are just 16-33 (.327) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .414.
The Rays are 19-9 (.679) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are 20-9 (.690) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Rays are 9-76 (.106) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox hitters have 139 strikeouts in 483 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of 1.315 (335 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.049.
The Red Sox are batting .264 with two outs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .229.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 123 of 1,802 batters (7%) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 25 of 440 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 23% this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 2.97 (439.1 IP) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.97.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Rays pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays pitchers have walked 965 of 13,826 batters (7%) since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taylor Walls (Tampa Bay Rays): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Jonny DeLuca (Tampa Bay Rays): Hand, 10-Day IL
- Jeffrey Springs (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane Baz (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Jonathan Aranda (Tampa Bay Rays): Finger, 10-Day IL
- Taj Bradley (Tampa Bay Rays): Pectoral, 15-Day IL
- Josh Lowe (Tampa Bay Rays): Oblique, 10-Day IL
- Junior Caminero (Tampa Bay Rays): Quadriceps, Day-To-Day
- Garrett Acton (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, Out
- Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Shane McClanahan (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wander Franco (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Suspension
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
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