- The Red Sox are -105 favorites vs the Rays
- Red Sox vs Rays Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Red Sox / Rays TV Channel: NESN | BSUN
The Boston Red Sox (-105) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-115) on Thursday, September 19, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:50pm EDT in St. Petersburg, FL.
This season, the Red Sox are 76-76 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 78-74 ATS.
Red Sox vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 14-7, 4.64 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Zack Littell 7-9, 3.74 ERA
Red Sox vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +155 | O 7.5 -105 | -105 |
| Rays | +1.5 -190 | U 7.5 -115 | -115 |
Red Sox vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 52.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 32 games (+14.80 Units / 46% ROI)
- Romy Gonzalez has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 away games (+13.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 24 away games (+11.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 44 games (+11.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Walks Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.60 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Caballero has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+12.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Josh Lowe has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 50 games (+11.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Josh Lowe has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 22 games at home (+11.25 Units / 40% ROI)
- Josh Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+9.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jonathan Aranda has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 6 games (+9.45 Units / 158% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 25 games (+25.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 56 away games (+11.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 27 games (+10.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+8.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 40 of their last 74 away games (+7.05 Units / 8% ROI)
Rays Best Bets Today:
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 25 games (+38.75 Units / 155% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 25 games (+25.50 Units / 102% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 89 of their last 149 games (+24.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 76 games (+15.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 81 of their last 143 games (+13.10 Units / 8% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 71-81 against the Run Line (-19.15 Units / -9.54% ROI).
- 76-76 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.85 Units / -4.72% ROI
- 75-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.7 Units / -0.42% ROI
- 69-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.85 Units / -7.75% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rays are 78-74 against the Run Line (-5.1 Units / -2.47% ROI).
- 74-78 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.11 Units / -6.13% ROI
- 67-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -20 Units / -12.01% ROI
- 80-67 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.6 Units / 3.93% ROI
Rays vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -350 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
Rays vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Connor Wong (BOS) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
Rays vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Rays vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Littell (TB) | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +110 |
| Brayan Bello (BOS) | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +105 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brayan Bello has walked 6 of 27 batters (22%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (3 games) — highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Brayan Bello has walked 6 of 27 batters (22%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (3 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .255 (150-for-588) against Brayan Bello this season — tied for 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — 19th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (92/165) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 96th Percentile.
Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Littell has walked 8 of 355 batters (2%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 190 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Littell has thrown his slider 49% of the time (298/611) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total SL; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Littell has walked 8 of 350 batters (2%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
13 of Zack Littell’s 39 breaking pitch strikeouts (33%) have been backdoor this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 60 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 97th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Red Sox are just 5-203 (.024) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Red Sox are just 4-54 (.069) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .144.
The Red Sox are just 14-20 (.412) after a home win this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Red Sox are just 19-188 (.092) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .134.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Rays are 129-5 (.963) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
The Rays are 61-4 (.938) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .798.
The Rays are 44-14 (.759) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .573.
The Rays are 12-123 (.089) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .269 at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Red Sox hitters have 492 strikeouts in 1,750 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Red Sox are batting .389 in hitter’s counts this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Red Sox hitters have 1,230 strikeouts in 4,875 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
The Rays scored first in 71% of their games against division opponents in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays hitters have 324 strikeouts in 1,307 PA’s (25%) against LHP this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rays hitters are slugging just .366 at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 194 of 2,799 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 89 of 1,364 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.55 (2152.0 IP) at home since the 2022 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.01.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Rays pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rays pitchers have walked 1,249 of 17,598 batters (7%) since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rays vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tampa Bay Rays – No Injuries Reported
- Boston Red Sox – No Injuries Reported
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