- The Brewers are -135 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds vs Brewers Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Reds / Brewers TV Channel: ATV+
The Cincinnati Reds (+115) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-135) on Friday, August 9, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Reds are 56-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 60-54 ATS.
Reds vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Carson Spiers 4-3, 3.59 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Aaron Civale 2-8, 5.15 ERA
Reds vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -185 | O 9 -120 | +115 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +150 | U 9 +100 | -135 |
Reds vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s MLB game with 53.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 28 games (+31.10 Units / 111% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Stolen Bases Over in 15 of his last 24 away games (+15.90 Units / 66% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+13.70 Units / 35% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.65 Units / 49% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Walks Over in 13 of his last 22 games (+9.55 Units / 43% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 23 games at home (+24.50 Units / 107% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 33 games (+17.40 Units / 51% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 31 games (+15.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 24 of his last 33 games (+14.80 Units / 37% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.20 Units / 52% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 97 games (+11.05 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 away games (+7.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 99 games (+7.75 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 100 games (+5.85 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.80 Units / 32% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 62 of their last 110 games (+16.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 65 of their last 114 games (+9.70 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 40 games at home (+8.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 64 of their last 114 games (+8.00 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 40 games at home (+6.40 Units / 14% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 64-51 against the Run Line (+7.2 Units / 4.75% ROI).
- 56-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.3 Units / -3.81% ROI
- 53-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.6 Units / -8.34% ROI
- 57-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.6 Units / -1.27% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 60-54 against the Run Line (+2.95 Units / 1.96% ROI).
- 65-49 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.7 Units / 6.72% ROI
- 63-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +14.25 Units / 11.46% ROI
- 45-63 when betting on the total runs Under for -24.6 Units / -19.46% ROI
Brewers vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jake Bauers (MIL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Brewers vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jonathan India (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Garrett Mitchell (MIL) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Brewers vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Brewers vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carson Spiers (CIN) | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
| Aaron Civale (MIL) | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -160 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carson Spiers has walked 11 of 239 batters (5%) this season — tied for 10th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 94th Percentile.
77% of Carson Spiers’ non-fastball strikeouts are located away this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 52% — 96th Percentile.
Carson Spiers has allowed three-ball counts to 13% of batters they faced (31/239 PA’s) this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 19% — 94th Percentile.
73% of Carson Spiers’ called strikeouts are outside this season — 10th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 51% — 94th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Aaron Civale in the 2023 season was 381.4 feet — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 399.8
The average home run distance against Aaron Civale since last season is 383.5 feet — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 110 total IP; League Avg: 399.0
Aaron Civale has thrown elevated pitches 49% of the time (462/936) vs left-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 45 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .137 (10 GB hits out of 73 GBs) against Aaron Civale with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 174 total IP; League Avg: .239 — 99th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Reds are just 31-34 (.477) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .585.
The Reds are just 8-19 (.296) after a win as underdogs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .414.
The Reds are just 3-42 (.067) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Reds are 12-20 (.375) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Brewers are 44-3 (.936) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Brewers are 34-72 (.321) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Brewers are 29-20 (.592) after a loss this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .509.
The Brewers are 113-81 (.582) after a loss since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .491.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .150 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .209.
The Reds are batting just .112 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .152.
The Reds are batting just .127 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Reds hitters have 117 extra-base hits out of 290 total hits (40%) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have drawn 118 walks in 1,132 PA’s (10%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers hitters have 35 extra-base hits out of 131 total hits (just 27%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Brewers hitters have a swing rate of just 27% on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Brewers hitters have an OBP of .335 (3,267 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .292 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .255.
Reds pitchers have walked 3 of 116 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.28 (784.2 IP) against division opponents since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.24.
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Brewers have won 49% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Brewers vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- J.C. Mejia (Milwaukee Brewers): Suspension, Suspension
- Christian Arroyo (Milwaukee Brewers): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- DL Hall (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Easton McGee (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wade Miley (Milwaukee Brewers): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Devin Williams (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Joe Ross (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Greg Allen (Milwaukee Brewers): Undisclosed, 7-Day IL
- Brandon Woodruff (Milwaukee Brewers): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- J.B. Bukauskas (Milwaukee Brewers): Triceps, 60-Day IL
- Abner Uribe (Milwaukee Brewers): Knee, 7-Day IL
- Christian Yelich (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 10-Day IL
- Oliver Dunn (Milwaukee Brewers): Back, 60-Day IL
- Graham Ashcraft (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Nick Martini (Cincinnati Reds): Thumb, 60-Day IL
- Carson Spiers (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 60-Day IL
- Tejay Antone (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Luke Maile (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 10-Day IL
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Day-To-Day
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Brent Suter (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Emilio Pagan (Cincinnati Reds): Lat, 60-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, 7-Day IL
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