- The Reds are + favorites vs the Nationals
- Reds vs Nationals Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Reds / Nationals TV Channel: MASN | BSOH
The Cincinnati Reds (+) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+) on Friday, July 19, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Reds are 47-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 54-43 ATS.
Reds vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Frankie Montas 4-7, 4.40 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin 1-9, 5.61 ERA
Reds vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | -1.5 +135 | O 9 +100 | + |
| Nationals | +1.5 -160 | U 9 -120 | + |
Reds vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Friday‘s MLB game with 54.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 28 of his last 47 games (+18.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 away games (+17.00 Units / 243% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 41 games (+11.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Will Benson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+11.25 Units / 74% ROI)
- Jake Fraley has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+10.45 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 10 games at home (+18.30 Units / 183% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+12.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 31 of his last 46 games (+12.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+11.60 Units / 65% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+11.50 Units / 88% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 79 games (+13.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 81 games (+11.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 42 away games (+10.35 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 82 games (+9.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 47 games (+8.80 Units / 16% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 89 games (+9.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 51 of their last 89 games (+8.65 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+7.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 41 games at home (+7.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+5.50 Units / 25% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 55-42 against the Run Line (+9.35 Units / 7.38% ROI).
- 47-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.1 Units / -3.5% ROI
- 43-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.85 Units / -11.99% ROI
- 50-43 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.4 Units / 2.26% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 54-43 against the Run Line (+4.73 Units / 3.75% ROI).
- 44-53 when betting on the Moneyline for +6 Units / 5.89% ROI
- 45-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.6 Units / -6.22% ROI
- 47-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.07 Units / -2.86% ROI
Nationals vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Rece Hinds (CIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Nationals vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Santiago Espinal (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Rece Hinds (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Nationals vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -130 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -150 |
| Rece Hinds (CIN) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Lane Thomas (WAS) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
Nationals vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin (WAS) | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +120 |
| Frankie Montas (CIN) | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a first pitch chase rate of 23% (114/498) against Frankie Montas since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 167 total IP; League Avg: 16% — 99th Percentile.
Frankie Montas has allowed a slugging percentage of .609 (28 Total Bases / 46 ABs) this month (2 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .395 — second Percentile.
Frankie Montas has allowed a slugging percentage of .889 (24 Total Bases / 27 ABs) vs left-handed batters this month (2 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .404 — second Percentile.
Frankie Montas has allowed a slugging percentage of .824 (14 Total Bases / 17 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (2 games) — tied for 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .414 — fifth Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .315 (212-for-673) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .311 (130-for-418) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .305 (126-for-413) against Patrick Corbin this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .247 (45-for-182) against Patrick Corbin with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .163 — first Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Reds are just 1-8 (.111) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 9-19 (.321) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 28-31 (.475) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .587.
The Reds are just 2-11 (.154) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Nationals are 9-2 (.818) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .577.
The Nationals are just 53-206 (.205) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
The Nationals are just 80-126 (.388) at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.
The Nationals are just 29-49 (.372) after a home win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .111 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .153.
Reds hitters have 38 extra-base hits out of 70 total hits (54%) against RHP this month (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Reds hitters have an OBP of just .180 (256 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Reds hitters are slugging just .149 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 557 strikeouts in 2,916 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .952 (1,768 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.087.
The Nationals have scored first in just 38% of their road games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .691 (4,863 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .725.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The average home run distance against the Reds pitchers this season is 390.2 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 397.4
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
- Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
- Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
- Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
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