- The Pirates are -190 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Reds / Pirates TV Channel: FS1 | BSOH | SNPT
The Cincinnati Reds (+155) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-190) on Monday, June 17, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
This season, the Reds are 34-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 38-33 ATS.
Reds vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Carson Spiers 0-0, 2.33 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Paul Skenes 3-0, 2.43 ERA
Reds vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -125 | O 8 +100 | +155 |
| Pirates | -1.5 +105 | U 8 -120 | -190 |
Reds vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Monday‘s MLB game with 59.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- TJ Friedl has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 13 games (+19.70 Units / 152% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 38 games (+17.55 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 34 games (+14.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 33 of his last 49 games (+10.65 Units / 15% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 24 of his last 38 games (+8.55 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 29 games (+17.20 Units / 33% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Total Bases Over in 22 of his last 29 games (+15.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 12 games at home (+12.40 Units / 103% ROI)
- Nick Gonzales has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 31 games (+9.45 Units / 28% ROI)
- Oneil Cruz has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 14 games at home (+9.10 Units / 65% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 55 games (+12.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 32 away games (+10.95 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 53 games (+9.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 34 of their last 56 games (+9.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+8.35 Units / 35% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 60 games (+14.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 27 games (+8.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 27 games (+8.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+8.15 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 32 games (+7.70 Units / 18% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 40-31 against the Run Line (+6 Units / 6.35% ROI).
- 34-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.9 Units / -3.51% ROI
- 31-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.2 Units / -13.02% ROI
- 37-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.65 Units / 3.4% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 38-33 against the Run Line (+2.61 Units / 2.81% ROI).
- 34-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -5 Units / -6.03% ROI
- 34-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.9 Units / -2.42% ROI
- 33-34 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.72 Units / -4.78% ROI
Pirates vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jack Suwinski (PIT) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Rowdy Tellez (PIT) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Pirates vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +210 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Yasmani Grandal (PIT) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Pirates vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Nick Gonzales (PIT) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Bryan Reynolds (PIT) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes (PIT) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Andrew McCutchen (PIT) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes (PIT) | 8.5 +120 | 8.5 -155 |
| Carson Spiers (CIN) | 4.5 +130 | 4.5 -165 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carson Spiers has allowed three-ball counts to 6% of batters they faced (5/80 PA’s) this season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 26% (7/27) against Carson Spiers in two-strike counts this season — 4th lowest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 45% — fourth Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 30% (10/33) against Carson Spiers this season — 12th lowest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 44% — 11th Percentile.
Carson Spiers has a strike rate of 72% (110/153) vs left-handed batters this season — tied for 5th highest among NL Relievers; League Avg: 64% — 95th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Paul Skenes has a strikeout rate of 35% (46 SO in 130 PAs) this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 99th Percentile.
Paul Skenes has an average fastball velocity of 99.3 MPH this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 93.5 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .111 (2-for-18) against Paul Skenes when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — 5th best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .223 — 91st Percentile.
Paul Skenes has allowed an OPS of just .278 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — 4th best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .640 — 94th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Reds are just 1-6 (.143) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 24-28 (.462) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.
The Reds are just 50-63 (.442) after a home loss since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .520.
The Reds are just 8-10 (.444) after a home loss this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Pirates are just 126-30 (.808) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .867.
The Pirates are just 3-11 (.214) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .373.
The Pirates are just 28-47 (.373) after a road win since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .486.
The Pirates are just 3-20 (.130) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .166 on breaking pitches this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .220.
The Reds are batting just .114 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .153.
The Reds are batting just .131 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Reds hitters have pulled 53% of balls they’ve put into play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
Pirates hitters have 49 strikeouts in 120 PA’s (41%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters have 177 strikeouts in 502 PA’s (35%) in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .498 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .574.
Pirates hitters have 1,160 strikeouts in 4,610 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .290 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,402 of 15,222 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 42 of 639 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates pitchers have allowed a run 35% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Pirates vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miguel Andujar (Pittsburgh Pirates): Knee, 10-Day IL
- Colin Holderman (Pittsburgh Pirates): Illness, 15-Day IL
- Johan Oviedo (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Dauri Moreta (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Carmen Mlodzinski (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Vince Velasquez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- Mike Burrows (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, Out
- JT Brubaker (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Max Kranick (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Endy Rodriguez (Pittsburgh Pirates): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Ji Hwan Bae (Pittsburgh Pirates): Hip, 10-Day IL
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
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