- The Yankees are -185 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds vs Yankees Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Reds / Yankees TV Channel: YES | BSOH
The Cincinnati Reds (+145) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-175) on Thursday, July 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in New York City, NY.
This season, the Reds are 41-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 48-40 ATS.
Reds vs Yankees Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Frankie Montas 3-6, 4.25 ERA
- Yankees starting pitcher: Marcus Stroman 7-3, 3.30 ERA
Reds vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -135 | O 9 +100 | +145 |
| Yankees | -1.5 +110 | U 9 -120 | -175 |
Reds vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 61.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Reds vs Yankees and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 28 of his last 47 games (+18.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- Santiago Espinal has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 away games (+17.00 Units / 243% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 41 games (+11.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Will Benson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+11.25 Units / 74% ROI)
- Jake Fraley has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+10.45 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Aaron Judge has hit the Home Runs Over in 22 of his last 45 games (+23.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Runs Over in 37 of his last 47 games (+22.30 Units / 34% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 47 games (+18.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 33 of his last 47 games (+17.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+13.55 Units / 26% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 70 games (+14.35 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 68 games (+11.95 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 71 games (+10.80 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 41 away games (+9.35 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 36 games (+8.35 Units / 20% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 54 games (+16.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 31 games (+13.90 Units / 40% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 54 games (+12.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 65 games (+9.79 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 57 games (+5.65 Units / 7% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 49-37 against the Run Line (+8.1 Units / 7.04% ROI).
- 41-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.9 Units / -2.91% ROI
- 37-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.3 Units / -15.05% ROI
- 46-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +5 Units / 5.3% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 48-40 against the Run Line (+13.15 Units / 12.61% ROI).
- 54-34 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.4 Units / 4.19% ROI
- 46-40 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.75 Units / 1.8% ROI
- 40-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.6 Units / -10.96% ROI
Yankees vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -200 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Austin Wells (NYY) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Ben Rice (NYY) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Yankees vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gleyber Torres (NYY) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Anthony Volpe (NYY) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jonathan India (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Noelvi Marte (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Yankees vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Gleyber Torres (NYY) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Yankees vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Frankie Montas (CIN) | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -115 |
| Marcus Stroman (NYY) | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Frankie Montas has walked 17 of 129 batters (13%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 8% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of 55% (443/799) against Frankie Montas when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 162 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 98th Percentile.
Frankie Montas has struck out just 16% (28/176) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 22% — ninth Percentile.
Frankie Montas has a strikeout rate of just 15% (20 SO in 129 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 8th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 24% — seventh Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Marcus Stroman has a strike rate of just 60% (516/860) against right-handed batters this season — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — second Percentile.
Marcus Stroman has struck out just 15% (27/184) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.
Marcus Stroman has a strike rate of just 60% (956/1,595) this season — tied for lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Marcus Stroman has allowed three-ball counts to 28% of batters they faced (62/219 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — first Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Reds are just 1-7 (.125) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 2-10 (.167) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 26-30 (.464) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .587.
The Reds are just 54-56 (.491) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .637.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Yankees are 24-20 (.545) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .412.
The Yankees are 10-13 (.435) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Yankees are 18-8 (.692) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .449.
The Yankees are 59-18 (.766) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .620.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .157 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Reds are batting just .130 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
The Reds are batting just .117 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .153.
Reds hitters have pulled 52% of balls they’ve put into play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have drawn 104 walks in 913 PA’s (11%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters are slugging .691 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .563.
Yankees hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 2,137 of their 9,322 plate appearances (23%) since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Yankees hitters have drawn 378 walks in 3,630 PA’s (10%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .289 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .205 against Yankees pitchers with the shift since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .199 against Yankees pitchers with the shift since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .233.
Yankees pitchers have allowed a run just 28% of the time after an opposing score since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Yankees pitchers have won 58% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Yankees vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Anthony Volpe (New York Yankees): Illness, Day-To-Day
- Lou Trivino (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Scott Effross (New York Yankees): Back, 60-Day IL
- Jasson Dominguez (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Gerrit Cole (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- McKinley Moore (New York Yankees): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Ryan Weber (New York Yankees): Forearm, Out
- DJ LeMahieu (New York Yankees): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Oscar Gonzalez (New York Yankees): Orbital, Out
- Jorbit Vivas (New York Yankees): Orbital, Out
- Tommy Kahnle (New York Yankees): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Oswald Peraza (New York Yankees): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
Bet now on Reds vs Yankees and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
