- The Reds are -200 favorites vs the Rockies
- Rockies vs Reds Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Rockies / Reds TV Channel: BSOH | ROTV | MLBN | ESPN+
The Colorado Rockies (+165) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-200) on Thursday, July 11, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Rockies are 33-60 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 52-41 ATS.
Rockies vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Rockies starting pitcher: Austin Gomber 2-5, 4.54 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Hunter Greene 5-4, 3.45 ERA
Rockies vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Rockies | +1.5 -115 | O 9 -115 | +165 |
| Reds | -1.5 -105 | U 9 -105 | -200 |
Rockies vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 61.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rockies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rockies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ryan McMahon has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 24 away games (+24.80 Units / 103% ROI)
- Ezequiel Tovar has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 43 games (+12.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- Ryan McMahon has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 20 away games (+9.85 Units / 49% ROI)
- Charlie Blackmon has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 30 games (+9.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- Brendan Rodgers has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 36 games (+8.85 Units / 17% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 28 of his last 47 games (+18.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 28 games (+16.60 Units / 59% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 41 games (+11.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Will Benson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+11.25 Units / 74% ROI)
- Jake Fraley has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+10.45 Units / 45% ROI)
Rockies Best Bets Today:
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 57 games (+13.25 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 57 games (+7.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 27 away games (+5.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 31 away games (+5.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 51 games (+4.05 Units / 7% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 25 of their last 34 games at home (+15.25 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 77 games (+13.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 46 games at home (+12.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 44 of their last 75 games (+10.75 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 43 games (+7.15 Units / 14% ROI)
Rockies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Rockies are 45-48 against the Run Line (-13.4 Units / -11.66% ROI).
- 33-60 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.4 Units / -7.98% ROI
- 46-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.4 Units / -3.37% ROI
- 45-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.75 Units / -5.66% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 52-41 against the Run Line (+6.9 Units / 5.62% ROI).
- 44-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.25 Units / -4.77% ROI
- 40-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.75 Units / -14.36% ROI
- 49-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.6 Units / 4.51% ROI
Reds vs Rockies Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -450 |
| Ryan McMahon (COL) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Michael Toglia (COL) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Reds vs Rockies Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Noelvi Marte (CIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jonathan India (CIN) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Brendan Rodgers (COL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Santiago Espinal (CIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Reds vs Rockies RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Spencer Steer (CIN) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jeimer Candelario (CIN) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Noelvi Marte (CIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Rece Hinds (CIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Reds vs Rockies Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Greene (CIN) | 8.5 -105 | 8.5 -125 |
| Austin Gomber (COL) | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
Rockies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Austin Gomber has a strikeout rate of just 20% (28 SO in 143 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — fifth Percentile.
Austin Gomber has a strikeout rate of just 16% (24 SO in 152 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — tied for 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — sixth Percentile.
11 of Austin Gomber’s 36 breaking pitch strikeouts (31%) have been backdoor this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 14% — 95th Percentile.
Austin Gomber has allowed a slugging percentage of .690 (29 Total Bases / 42 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .383 — third Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
62% of Hunter Greene’s strikeouts have come on 97+ MPH fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Greene has walked 21 of 162 batters (13%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .453 (63-for-139) against Hunter Greene on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 165 total IP; League Avg: .342 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 39% (62/159) against Hunter Greene on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Rockies Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Rockies are just 23-23 (.500) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .792.
The Rockies are just 66-30 (.688) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .859.
The Rockies are just 70-20 (.778) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .899.
The Rockies are just 78-13 (.857) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .947.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Rockies
The Reds are just 1-7 (.125) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 9-18 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 2-10 (.167) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are 37-18 (.673) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .585.
Rockies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Rockies have an average HR distance of 411.2 feet since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 398.4.
The Rockies won just 53% of games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 75%.
The Rockies have won just 50% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
The Rockies are batting .273 at home since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .154 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Reds are batting just .115 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .153.
Reds hitters have 26 extra-base hits out of 44 total hits (59%) against RHP this month (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Reds are batting just .129 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Rockies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 21% against Rockies pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Rockies pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 36% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Rockies pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Rockies pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 35% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,516 of 16,010 batters (10%) since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds vs. Rockies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- German Marquez (Colorado Rockies): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Lucas Gilbreath (Colorado Rockies): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Antonio Senzatela (Colorado Rockies): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Daniel Bard (Colorado Rockies): Knee, 15-Day IL
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