The Kansas City Royals (+100) visit Goodyear Ballpark to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-120) on Saturday, March 2, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 3:05pm EST in Goodyear, AZ.
This season, the Royals are 4-1 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 2-5 ATS.
Royals vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Royals | +100 |
| Guardians | -120 |
Royals vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Saturday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Royals vs Guardians and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Stolen Bases Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Michael Massey has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Nathan Eaton has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Myles Straw has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.95 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jose Tena has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.90 Units / 83% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+13.10 Units / 77% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 59 games (+9.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.59 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 17 games (+5.00 Units / 22% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 76 games at home (+22.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 64 of their last 120 games (+6.20 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.72 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 62 games at home (+4.25 Units / 5% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Royals are 3-2 against the Run Line (+1.36 Units / 21.87% ROI).
- 4-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.3 Units / 51.32% ROI
- 1-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.2 Units / -60.38% ROI
- 4-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.9 Units / 50.43% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Guardians are 2-5 against the Run Line (-4.28 Units / -45.29% ROI).
- 2-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.44 Units / -43.32% ROI
- 4-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.7 Units / 22.22% ROI
- 2-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.53 Units / -32.65% ROI
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Seth Lugo allowed a batting average of .279 vs right-handed batters (10th-worst)– ninth Percentile and just .165 vs left-handed batters last season (tied for ninth-best among qualified RPs)– 91st Percentile.
Opponents had a chase percentage of just 13% (6/45) against Seth Lugo in late innings in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 31% — second Percentile.
Seth Lugo threw his curveball 38% of the time (482/1,255) vs left-handed batters in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 97th Percentile.
Seth Lugo threw his curveball 41% of the time (196/474) with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 97th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane Bieber located his fastball away 64% of the time (436/686) in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Bieber located 71% of his pitches away (688/967) against right-handed batters in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 62% (80/128) against Shane Bieber on fastballs in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 46% — first Percentile.
Shane Bieber located 59% of his pitches away (1,159/1,954) in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 99th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Royals are just 11-83 (.117) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .363.
The Royals were just 1-8 (.111) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Royals were just 17-12 (.586) when they had 5 or more XBH in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .790.
The Royals are just 9-15 (.375) after a loss as favorites since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .584.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Guardians are 34-114 (.230) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Guardians were just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians were 18-57 (.240) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .141.
The Guardians were just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 52% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 30% on the road since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Royals hitters had an OBP of just .280 (2,958 PA’s) on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Royals hitters had an OPS of just .649 (2,958 PA’s) on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Guardians hitters had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 34% against RHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Guardians hitters struck out just 1,142 times in 6,096 PA’s (19%) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters slugged just .367 against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals won just 18% of games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Royals pitchers picked-off 19 runners from first base in the 2023 season — best in MLB.
Royals pitchers had an ERA of 5.39 (674.0 IP) on the road in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Royals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians pitchers won only 19% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed the 28th hardest ball in play hit (119.2 MPH) in the 2023 season (; League Avg: 117.2).
Guardians pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 100 times since last season — tied for 2nd fewest in MLB.
Guardians vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gabriel Arias (Cleveland Guardians): Wrist, Out
- Logan Allen (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Freddy Fermin (Kansas City Royals): Finger, Out
- Kyle Wright (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- John McMillon (Kansas City Royals): Forearm, Out
- Austin Cox (Kansas City Royals): Knee, Out
- Brad Keller (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, Out
- Josh Taylor (Kansas City Royals): Back, Out
- Carlos Hernandez (Kansas City Royals): Shoulder, Out
- Kris Bubic (Kansas City Royals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
Bet now on Royals vs Guardians and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
