- The Padres are -210 favorites vs the Tigers
- Tigers vs Padres Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Tigers / Padres TV Channel: BSDT | PDTV | MLBN
The Detroit Tigers (+170) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-210) on Wednesday, September 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Tigers are 70-69 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 71-69 ATS.
Tigers vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Tigers starting pitcher: Keider Montero 4-6, 5.22 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish 4-3, 3.20 ERA
Tigers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | +1.5 -120 | O 8 -115 | +170 |
| Padres | -1.5 +100 | U 8 -105 | -210 |
Tigers vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 61.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kerry Carpenter has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 17 games (+16.90 Units / 99% ROI)
- Parker Meadows has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 26 games (+16.15 Units / 37% ROI)
- Colt Keith has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 35 games (+12.80 Units / 19% ROI)
- Parker Meadows has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 24 games (+11.85 Units / 48% ROI)
- Parker Meadows has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 26 games (+10.85 Units / 32% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 31 games (+28.60 Units / 92% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 39 games (+15.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Under in 32 of his last 48 games (+13.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Over in 23 of his last 39 games (+12.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Walks Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+9.45 Units / 26% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 52 games (+17.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 54 games (+13.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 29 away games (+11.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 29 away games (+9.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games (+9.20 Units / 30% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 63 games (+16.35 Units / 19% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 62 games (+12.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games at home (+7.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 57 of their last 108 games (+7.25 Units / 5% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.80 Units / 51% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Tigers are 73-66 against the Run Line (+0.2 Units / 0.11% ROI).
- 70-69 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.5 Units / 0.31% ROI
- 68-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.15 Units / -0.77% ROI
- 63-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.85 Units / -7.9% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 71-69 against the Run Line (+4.15 Units / 2.39% ROI).
- 79-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.55 Units / 2.43% ROI
- 76-62 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.25 Units / 5.39% ROI
- 62-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -22.4 Units / -14.43% ROI
Padres vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Padres vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Matt Vierling (DET) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Padres vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jurickson Profar (SD) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Padres vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Keider Montero (DET) | 3.5 +100 | 3.5 -130 |
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Keider Montero has limited playing time.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yu Darvish has thrown his slider 49% of the time (305/618) when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total SL; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has thrown breaking pitches 56% of the time (344/618) when behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 119 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has allowed an OBP of just .302 (321 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — 9th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total IP; League Avg: .330 — 87th Percentile.
Yu Darvish has allowed an OPS of just .646 (323 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total IP; League Avg: .754 — 92nd Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Tigers are 32-4 (.889) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .703.
The Tigers are 47-6 (.887) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .800.
The Tigers are 15-49 (.234) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .144.
The Tigers are just 50-11 (.820) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Padres are 56-4 (.933) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Padres are 119-20 (.856) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .789.
The Padres are 10-53 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .103.
The Padres are 25-18 (.581) after a road win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .470.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Tigers answered-back in just 25% of innings after an opponent scored in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
The Tigers have scored in at least three different innings in just 39% of their games since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Tigers have answered-back in just 22% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Tigers have answered-back in just 24% of innings after an opponent scores since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres have won 82% of games in which they have scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 68%.
The Padres have a winning percentage of 59% on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Padres have won 80% of games in which they have scored first on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
The Padres have won 84% of games in which they have scored first at home since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers have won only 16% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Tigers have won just 28% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Tigers pitchers won only 16% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Tigers pitchers have won only 21% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Padres have have still managed to win 36% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 39% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Padres pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 37% of their games on the road in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 29% of the time after an opposing score since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Padres vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- San Diego Padres – No Injuries Reported
- Detroit Tigers – No Injuries Reported
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