- The Padres are -155 favorites vs the Tigers
- Tigers vs Padres Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Tigers / Padres TV Channel: BSDT | PDTV | MLBN
The Detroit Tigers (+135) visit Petco Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-160) on Thursday, September 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40pm EDT in San Diego, CA.
This season, the Tigers are 70-70 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 71-70 ATS.
Tigers vs Padres Starting Pitchers Today:
- Tigers starting pitcher: Casey Mize 2-6, 4.24 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Martin Perez 4-5, 4.66 ERA
Tigers vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | +1.5 -160 | O 8.5 -115 | +135 |
| Padres | -1.5 +135 | U 8.5 -105 | -160 |
Tigers vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 55.7% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kerry Carpenter has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 18 games (+15.90 Units / 88% ROI)
- Parker Meadows has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 27 games (+14.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- Colt Keith has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 36 games (+13.80 Units / 20% ROI)
- Parker Meadows has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+10.85 Units / 42% ROI)
- Parker Meadows has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+9.85 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 32 games (+33.80 Units / 106% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 40 games (+16.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Under in 33 of his last 49 games (+14.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Over in 24 of his last 40 games (+13.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+10.10 Units / 29% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 53 games (+18.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 55 games (+12.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 30 away games (+11.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 20 of their last 30 away games (+10.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 30 away games (+9.60 Units / 27% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 64 games (+17.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 63 games (+13.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games at home (+6.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 57 of their last 109 games (+6.25 Units / 5% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 38 games at home (+2.85 Units / 6% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Tigers are 74-66 against the Run Line (+1.2 Units / 0.64% ROI).
- 70-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.5 Units / -0.31% ROI
- 69-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.15 Units / -0.1% ROI
- 63-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.95 Units / -8.57% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Padres are 71-70 against the Run Line (+3.15 Units / 1.8% ROI).
- 80-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.55 Units / 2.94% ROI
- 77-62 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.25 Units / 6% ROI
- 62-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -23.5 Units / -15.03% ROI
Padres vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jake Rogers (DET) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Andy Ibanez (DET) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Padres vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Xander Bogaerts (SD) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Andy Ibanez (DET) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Padres vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Manny Machado (SD) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Padres vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Casey Mize (DET) | 3.5 -105 | 3.5 -120 |
| Martin Perez (SD) | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Casey Mize has a strikeout rate of just 31% (62 SO in 202 PAs) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Casey Mize has a strikeout rate of just 12% (11 SO in 95 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 22% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .341 (15-for-44) against Casey Mize on low fastballs this season — 14th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: .271 — 13th Percentile.
Casey Mize has a strikeout rate of just 23% (25 SO in 110 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 12th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 10th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Martin Perez has allowed an OPS of 1.103 (112 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: .754 — 0 Percentile.
Martin Perez has allowed a slugging percentage of .692 (72 Total Bases / 104 ABs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: .429 — 0 Percentile.
Martin Perez has located his fastball inside 48% of the time (876/1,815) since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .375 (39-for-104) against Martin Perez when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: .261 — first Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Tigers are 33-3 (.917) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .751.
The Tigers are 11-51 (.177) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Tigers are 60-9 (.870) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Tigers are 15-49 (.234) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .142.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Padres are 69-56 (.552) after a road win since the 2022 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
The Padres are 46-32 (.590) after a win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Padres are 120-20 (.857) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .789.
The Padres are 25-18 (.581) after a road win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .470.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .657 (13,123 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.
The Tigers are batting just .311 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .292 (13,123 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .299 (8,785 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting .279 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Padres hitters have just 250 strikeouts in 1,486 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have just 923 strikeouts in 5,325 PA’s (17%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres hitters have just 673 strikeouts in 3,839 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers have walked 846 of 11,244 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 370 of 5,171 batters (7%) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 341 of 4,120 batters (8%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Tigers pitchers won only 16% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.9 MPH in the 2023 season (3,922 balls in play) — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Padres pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (3,922 batted balls) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Padres pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Padres vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- San Diego Padres – No Injuries Reported
- Detroit Tigers – No Injuries Reported
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