- The Reds are -155 favorites vs the Tigers
- Tigers vs Reds Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Tigers / Reds TV Channel: BSOH | BSDT
The Detroit Tigers (+130) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-155) on Saturday, July 6, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cincinnati, OH.
This season, the Tigers are 40-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 50-38 ATS.
Tigers vs Reds Starting Pitchers Today:
- Tigers starting pitcher: Undecided 0-0, 0.00 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Hunter Greene 5-4, 3.70 ERA
Tigers vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | +1.5 -155 | O 9 -105 | +130 |
| Reds | -1.5 +125 | U 9 -115 | -155 |
Tigers vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 54.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Vierling has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 26 games (+22.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+14.45 Units / 41% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+13.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- Gio Urshela has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+12.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.95 Units / 56% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 28 of his last 47 games (+18.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 28 games (+16.60 Units / 59% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 41 games (+11.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Will Benson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+11.25 Units / 74% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 30 games (+9.30 Units / 28% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 71 games (+11.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 24 away games (+9.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 24 away games (+6.55 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+3.40 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+3.35 Units / 50% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 29 games at home (+14.30 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 72 games (+13.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 70 games (+11.95 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 41 games at home (+10.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 38 games (+8.55 Units / 20% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Tigers are 39-49 against the Run Line (-16.15 Units / -13.58% ROI).
- 40-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.5 Units / -11.3% ROI
- 46-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.15 Units / 7.63% ROI
- 35-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.6 Units / -16.7% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 50-38 against the Run Line (+8.1 Units / 6.91% ROI).
- 42-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.7 Units / -2.65% ROI
- 38-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.3 Units / -13.7% ROI
- 46-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.85 Units / 3.98% ROI
Reds vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Vierling (DET) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Colt Keith (DET) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Parker Meadows (DET) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Justyn-Henry Malloy (DET) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Reds vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Vierling (DET) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Colt Keith (DET) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Mark Canha (DET) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Wenceel Perez (DET) | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
Reds vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Matt Vierling (DET) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Mark Canha (DET) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Colt Keith (DET) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Wenceel Perez (DET) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have chased just 47 of Casey Mize’s 257 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 18%) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 31% — second Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 36 of Casey Mize’s 192 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 19%) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 15% (40/266) against Casey Mize this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Casey Mize has a strike rate of just 59% (284/480) in two strike counts this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .128 (5-for-39) against Hunter Greene on low fastballs this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .259 — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Greene has walked 20 of 153 batters (13%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — fifth Percentile.
Hunter Greene has walked 14 of 101 batters (14%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .457 (63-for-138) against Hunter Greene on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 163 total IP; League Avg: .342 — first Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Tigers are 19-2 (.905) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .753.
The Tigers are just 27-8 (.771) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .857.
The Tigers are just 6-12 (.333) after a home win this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .523.
The Tigers are just 24-35 (.407) after a home win since the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Reds are just 1-7 (.125) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 2-10 (.167) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 26-30 (.464) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .586.
The Reds are just 54-56 (.491) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .636.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Tigers are batting just .273 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .332.
The Tigers are batting just .308 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .360 against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .291 (11,570 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .158 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Reds are batting just .119 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .153.
The Reds are batting just .174 on breaking pitches this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .218.
The Reds have won just 61% of games in which they have scored first at home since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 73%.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Tigers pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 231 of 3,263 batters (7%) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 311 of 3,651 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Tigers have won just 21% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have an ERA of 4.74 (1868.0 IP) at home since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
Reds vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Austin Wynns (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Suspension, Suspension
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds): Ankle, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Calf, 15-Day IL
- TJ Friedl (Cincinnati Reds): Wrist, 10-Day IL
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, 15-Day IL
- Ian Gibaut (Cincinnati Reds): Forearm, 15-Day IL
- Brandon Williamson (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Austin Meadows (Detroit Tigers): Personal, Out
- Matthew Boyd (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
- Sawyer Gipson-Long (Detroit Tigers): Groin, 15-Day IL
- Brendan White (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Freddy Pacheco (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
- Garrett Hill (Detroit Tigers): Lat, Out
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