- The Mariners are -130 favorites vs the Twins
- Twins vs Mariners Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Twins / Mariners TV Channel: BSNO | RTNW | MLBN
The Minnesota Twins (+105) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-130) on Friday, June 28, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Seattle, WA.
This season, the Twins are 45-36 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 39-44 ATS.
Twins vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Bailey Ober 7-4, 4.52 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert 5-4, 2.73 ERA
Twins vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | +1.5 -200 | O 7 +100 | +105 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +165 | U 7 -120 | -130 |
Twins vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 25 away games (+21.80 Units / 87% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Walks Under in 21 of his last 24 games (+15.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+11.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 35 games (+11.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Manuel Margot has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 17 away games (+9.90 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luke Raley has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 13 games at home (+15.60 Units / 120% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 35 games (+15.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Total Bases Under in 34 of his last 50 games (+12.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- Josh Rojas has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+11.90 Units / 35% ROI)
- Logan Gilbert has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.85 Units / 60% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 40 of their last 64 games (+12.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 61 games (+8.00 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 22 away games (+5.74 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.75 Units / 72% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 29 games at home (+14.90 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 29 games at home (+14.80 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 38 games at home (+13.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 29 games at home (+9.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 29 games at home (+7.20 Units / 21% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 37-44 against the Run Line (-9.95 Units / -9.66% ROI).
- 45-36 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.95 Units / -0.83% ROI
- 39-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.8 Units / -3.18% ROI
- 38-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -5 Units / -5.69% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 39-44 against the Run Line (-8 Units / -7.46% ROI).
- 46-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 0.93% ROI
- 33-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.7 Units / -18.67% ROI
- 46-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.45 Units / 10.35% ROI
Mariners vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Mitch Garver (SEA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
Mariners vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Mariners vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Mariners vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Ober (MIN) | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -120 |
| Logan Gilbert (SEA) | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -135 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .135 (17-for-126) against Bailey Ober’s non-fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .217 — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has an ERA of 7.62 (28.1 IP) against division opponents this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.57 — first Percentile.
Bailey Ober has induced opposing hitters to ground into 4 double plays in 9 opportunities (44%) this month (4 games) — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (73/224) against Bailey Ober this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Logan Gilbert has induced opposing hitters to ground into 4 double plays in 6 opportunities (67%) this month (4 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OBP of just .069 (29 PA’s) against right-handed batters — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .291 — 98th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OBP of just .171 (105 PA’s) this month (4 games) — best among among AL Starters; League Avg: .303 — 100th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OBP of just .164 (146 PA’s) versus the top of the order this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .311 — 100th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Twins are 51-17 (.750) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .620.
The Twins are 108-1 (.991) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .947.
The Twins are 14-25 (.359) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .199.
The Twins are just 21-32 (.396) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Mariners are 9-2 (.818) after a home loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .543.
The Mariners are 174-8 (.956) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .904.
The Mariners are 184-4 (.979) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Mariners are 92-15 (.860) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .787.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting .324 against LHP this month (20 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .255.
The Twins are batting .283 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Twins hitters have an OBP of .336 (781 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Twins hitters have 45 extra-base hits out of 94 total hits (48%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .210 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Mariners hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Mariners are batting just .219 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Mariners hitters have 838 strikeouts in 3,034 PA’s (28%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% versus the bottom of the order this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mariners pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 18% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 39 of 734 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 199 of 2,956 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have an ERA of 3.12 (1099.0 IP) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.11.
Mariners vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mitch Garver (Seattle Mariners): Back, Day-To-Day
- Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, 10-Day IL
- Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, 15-Day IL
- Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Zack Weiss (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Matt Canterino (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins): Toe, 7-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins): Leg, Day-To-Day
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins): Calf, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Thielbar (Minnesota Twins): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Kneecap, 15-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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