- The Twins are -110 favorites vs the Mariners
- Twins vs Mariners Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Twins / Mariners TV Channel: BSNO | RTNW | MLBN
The Minnesota Twins (-115) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-105) on Sunday, June 30, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Seattle, WA.
This season, the Twins are 46-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 39-46 ATS.
Twins vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Joe Ryan 5-5, 3.32 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo 6-9, 3.80 ERA
Twins vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +155 | O 7 +100 | -115 |
| Mariners | +1.5 -190 | U 7 -120 | -105 |
Twins vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 51.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Carlos Santana has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 25 away games (+21.80 Units / 87% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Walks Under in 21 of his last 24 games (+15.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+11.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 35 games (+11.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Manuel Margot has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 17 away games (+9.90 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luke Raley has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 13 games at home (+15.60 Units / 120% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 35 games (+15.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Total Bases Under in 34 of his last 50 games (+12.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- Josh Rojas has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+11.90 Units / 35% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 26 games (+10.55 Units / 37% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 41 of their last 66 games (+11.95 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 63 games (+8.00 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 7 games (+6.25 Units / 77% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 24 away games (+5.64 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.50 Units / 24% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 40 games at home (+15.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 31 games at home (+14.90 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 31 games at home (+12.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 31 games at home (+9.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 52 games (+7.90 Units / 12% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 39-44 against the Run Line (-7.45 Units / -7.03% ROI).
- 46-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.95 Units / -0.82% ROI
- 39-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.9 Units / -5.43% ROI
- 40-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -3 Units / -3.32% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 39-46 against the Run Line (-10.75 Units / -9.78% ROI).
- 47-38 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 0.91% ROI
- 33-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.8 Units / -20.54% ROI
- 48-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.45 Units / 12.23% ROI
Mariners vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Mitch Haniger (SEA) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Mitch Garver (SEA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Mariners vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Willi Castro (MIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Mariners vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Mariners vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Castillo (Sea) | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +120 |
| Joe Ryan (MIN) | 7.5 +105 | 7.5 -140 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Ryan has allowed a slugging percentage of .492 (190 Total Bases / 386 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .387 — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .205 (9-for-44) against Joe Ryan on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .333 — 96th Percentile.
Joe Ryan has allowed a slugging percentage of .462 (275 Total Bases / 595 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .383 — eighth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (90/267) against Joe Ryan this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — sixth Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Castillo has struck out just 18% (36/197) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 14th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .139 (15-for-108) against Luis Castillo’s elevated fastball this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .208 — 94th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has allowed a slugging percentage of .404 (46 Total Bases / 114 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .299 — fifth Percentile.
Luis Castillo has allowed a slugging percentage of .503 (90 Total Bases / 179 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — tied for 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .396 — 10th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Twins are 14-25 (.359) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .198.
The Twins are 108-1 (.991) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .947.
The Twins are 51-17 (.750) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .619.
The Twins are just 8-13 (.381) after a road loss this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .473.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Mariners are 9-2 (.818) after a home loss this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .545.
The Mariners are 100-16 (.862) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .733.
The Mariners are 27-2 (.931) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Mariners are 60-10 (.857) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .737.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting .283 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Twins hitters are slugging .461 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .396.
Twins hitters have 46 extra-base hits out of 94 total hits (49%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .752 (1,002 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .680.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .211 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Mariners hitters have put just 33% of their swings in play with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mariners hitters have 866 strikeouts in 3,106 PA’s (28%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mariners are batting just .126 on pitches out of the zone since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% versus the bottom of the order this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 658 of 9,095 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mariners pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 18% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 621 of 9,035 batters (7%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have an ERA of 2.53 (374.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Mariners pitchers have walked 39 of 753 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mariners vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mitch Garver (Seattle Mariners): Back, Day-To-Day
- Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, 10-Day IL
- Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, 15-Day IL
- Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Zack Weiss (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Matt Canterino (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins): Toe, 7-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins): Leg, Day-To-Day
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins): Calf, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Thielbar (Minnesota Twins): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Kneecap, 15-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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