- The Twins are -140 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Twins vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Twins / Red Sox TV Channel: BSNO | NESN | MLBN
The Minnesota Twins (-145) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+120) on Saturday, September 21, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Twins are 81-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 71-83 ATS.
Twins vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Twins starting pitcher: Pablo Lopez 15-8, 3.89 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford 8-15, 4.21 ERA
Twins vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Twins | -1.5 +120 | O 8 -120 | -145 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -145 | U 8 +100 | +120 |
Twins vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 56.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Bets Today:
- Pablo Lopez has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 23 of his last 30 games (+13.25 Units / 30% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+11.60 Units / 232% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+11.60 Units / 43% ROI)
- Matt Wallner has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+8.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.40 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+13.45 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 34 games (+12.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.30 Units / 53% ROI)
- Tyler O’Neill has hit the Singles Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.15 Units / 40% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 88 games (+12.00 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+7.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 16 away games (+3.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.55 Units / 33% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 49 games (+49.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 29 games (+13.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 28 games (+11.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+9.45 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+3.15 Units / 28% ROI)
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 71-83 against the Run Line (-16.05 Units / -8.22% ROI).
- 81-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.2 Units / -5.12% ROI
- 77-68 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.6 Units / 1.55% ROI
- 68-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.95 Units / -10.04% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 71-83 against the Run Line (-21.75 Units / -10.7% ROI).
- 76-78 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.95 Units / -5.78% ROI
- 75-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.8 Units / -1.66% ROI
- 71-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.85 Units / -6.46% ROI
Red Sox vs Twins Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Carlos Santana (MIN) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Red Sox vs Twins Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jose Miranda (MIN) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
Red Sox vs Twins RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton (MIN) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Carlos Santana (MIN) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Twins Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kutter Crawford (BOS) | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
| Pablo Lopez (MIN) | 7.5 +115 | 7.5 -150 |
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 36% (235/653) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 190 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% (92/188) against Pablo Lopez in two-strike counts this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 83rd Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has a first-pitch strike rate of 67% (487/725) this season — 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 87th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has a strikeout rate of 28% (157 SO in 557 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 96th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kutter Crawford has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.011 (88 Total Bases / 87 ABs) when behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .586 — first Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has a strikeout rate of 44% (12 SO in 27 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (3 games) — tied for 2nd best among among AL Starters; League Avg: 26% — 97th Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has allowed an OPS of 1.502 (108 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.027 — second Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has a strikeout rate of 44% (12 SO in 27 PAs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this month (3 games) — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 98th Percentile.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Twins are just 26-37 (.413) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 62-26 (.705) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .627.
The Twins are 27-103 (.208) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .142.
The Twins are just 8-14 (.364) after a loss as underdogs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .434.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Red Sox are just 3-138 (.021) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Red Sox are just 37-38 (.493) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .582.
The Red Sox are just 57-198 (.224) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
The Red Sox are 23-19 (.548) after a road win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .463.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .198 in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Twins hitters are slugging .445 at home this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Twins hitters are slugging .447 at home since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
The Twins have scored 1.75 runs per game (553/316) in late innings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.45.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have 495 strikeouts in 1,756 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Red Sox have not won a game in which they have scored first this month (18 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 69%.
The Red Sox are batting .269 at home since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Red Sox are batting .389 in hitter’s counts this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 403 of 5,733 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have walked 185 of 2,827 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 437 of 5,860 batters (7%) this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 89 of 1,384 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Red Sox vs. Twins Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Boston Red Sox – No Injuries Reported
- Minnesota Twins – No Injuries Reported
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