- The Astros are -150 favorites vs the Yankees
- Yankees / Astros TV Channel: SCHN | YES
The New York Yankees (+125) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-150) on Thursday, March 28, 2024. First pitch is for this MLB matchup is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Houston, TX.
Yankees vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | +1.5 -160 | O 8.5 +100 | +125 |
| Astros | -1.5 +135 | U 8.5 -120 | -150 |
Yankees vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Thursday‘s game with 53.6% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Ben Rortvedt has hit the Singles Over in his last game (+1.85 Units / 185% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Under in 2 of his last 3 away games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Franchy Cordero has hit the Runs Over in his last away game (+1.55 Units / 155% ROI)
- Franchy Cordero has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+1.05 Units / 52% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 68% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Mauricio Dubon has hit the RBIs Over in his last game (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 43 away games (+12.90 Units / 27% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 20 away games (+9.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 away games (+8.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.60 Units / 29% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+15.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 51 of their last 87 games at home (+8.68 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 53 games at home (+7.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.21 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 100 games (+4.60 Units / 4% ROI)
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nestor Cortes has averaged 79.6 MPH on sliders since the 2021 season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 85.1 — fourth Percentile.
Nestor Cortes’ lowest spin rate on fastballs since the 2022 season is 1853.0 RPM — 12th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 1212.5
Nestor Cortes has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.1 MPH on the 206 breaking pitches put in play against him since the 2021 season — 13th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 87.4.
Nestor Cortes’ lowest spin rate on fastballs since the 2021 season is 1853.0 RPM — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 194 total IP; League Avg: 1124.1
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Framber Valdez located 47% of his pitches inside (361/767) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Framber Valdez had third base stolen on him 8 times in the 2023 season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Framber Valdez located 41% of his pitches inside (1,210/2,952) in the 2023 season — highest among in AL; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Framber Valdez located 47% of his pitches inside (361/767) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — highest among in AL; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Yankees were just 9-37 (.196) when allowing 10 or more hits in 2023 — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Yankees were just 11-41 (.212) when allowing 2 or more home runs in 2023 — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.
The Yankees are 108-28 (.794) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Yankees are 19-17 (.528) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Astros are 90-23 (.796) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Astros were 42-30 (.583) after a loss in 2023 — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
The Astros were 13-7 (.650) after a loss as underdogs in 2023 — best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Astros are 15-11 (.577) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
The Yankees batted just .234 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Yankees hitters had a groundball batting average of just .212 in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Yankees hitters had an OBP of just .301 (2,891 PA’s) at home in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.
The Yankees batted just .230 with runners on base in the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .257.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
The Astros have won 90% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
Astros hitters averaged just 3.81 pitches per plate appearance against RHP in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Astros hitters struck out just 327 times in 1,801 PA’s (18%) against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Astros are 21-5 (.808) against the run line (28.4% ROI) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .553.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .215 against Yankees pitchers in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .215 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 22% against Yankees pitchers in the 2023 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 4% of innings played since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers had an ERA of 3.62 (710.1 IP) on the road in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.44.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 35% of their games since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Astros pitchers have won 41% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Astros won 47% of road games in which their opponents scored first in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Astros vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, Out
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, Out
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Back, Out
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, Out
- J.P. France (Houston Astros): Shoulder, Out
- Lou Trivino (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Scott Effross (New York Yankees): Back, 60-Day IL
- Jasson Dominguez (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wandy Peralta (New York Yankees): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Ryan Weber (New York Yankees): Forearm, Out
- Jose Trevino (New York Yankees): Calf, Out
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