- The Astros are -135 favorites vs the Yankees
- Yankees / Astros TV Channel: FOX
The New York Yankees () visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros () on Saturday, March 30, 2024. First pitch is for this MLB matchup is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Houston, TX.
This season, the Yankees are 2-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 0-2 ATS.
Yankees vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | O | ||
| Astros | U |
Yankees vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s game with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+11.35 Units / 34% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 21 away games (+9.90 Units / 44% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres has hit the RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.30 Units / 34% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 22 away games (+8.60 Units / 19% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 14 away games (+8.50 Units / 41% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 24 games at home (+22.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 21 games at home (+12.90 Units / 40% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+11.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+10.25 Units / 33% ROI)
- Cristian Javier has hit the Strikeouts Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+9.70 Units / 28% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 43 away games (+12.90 Units / 27% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 20 away games (+9.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 away games (+8.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.60 Units / 29% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+15.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 51 of their last 87 games at home (+8.68 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 53 games at home (+7.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.21 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 100 games (+4.60 Units / 4% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 2-0 against the Run Line (+2 Units / 57.97% ROI).
- 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.35 Units / 117.5% ROI
- 0-1 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.2 Units / -52.17% ROI
- 1-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +1 Units / 47.62% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 0-2 against the Run Line (-2 Units / -100% ROI).
- 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.75 Units / -100% ROI
- 0-1 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.2 Units / -52.17% ROI
- 1-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +1 Units / 47.62% ROI
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Marcus Stroman located his fastball low 56% of the time (657/1,169) in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters had a groundball rate of 63% (134/214) against Marcus Stroman in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 99th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (248/418) against Marcus Stroman since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Marcus Stroman threw fastballs down 56% of the time (657/1,169) in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 27% — 99th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .426 (20 GB hits out of 47 GBs) against Hunter Brown with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .248 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 47% (62/131) against Hunter Brown on low non-fastballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 60% (86/143) against Hunter Brown on sliders since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Brown has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 91.1 MPH on the 271 breaking pitches put in play against him since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 87.4.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Yankees are 21-17 (.553) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Yankees are 111-28 (.799) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Yankees were just 10-56 (.152) when they allowed 5 or more runs in 2023 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .219.
The Yankees were just 11-41 (.212) when allowing 2 or more home runs in 2023 — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Astros are 40-20 (.667) after a road loss since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .455.
The Astros are 16-12 (.571) after a loss as underdogs since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .406.
The Astros were 27-19 (.587) after a road win in 2023 — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Astros are 168-51 (.767) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
The Yankees batted just .234 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
The Yankees batted just .313 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .348.
The Yankees are batting just .214 with two outs since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Yankees hitters had a groundball batting average of just .212 in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 650 strikeouts in 3,659 PA’s (18%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters struck out just 327 times in 1,801 PA’s (18%) against LHP in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Astros have a winning percentage of 63% on the road since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Astros have won 87% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .217 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .214 against Yankees pitchers in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .214 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
In games when their opponents scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees won just just 14% of the time in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have won 41% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.34 (1421.2 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.29.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Justin Verlander (Houston Astros): Shoulder, Out
- Kendall Graveman (Houston Astros): Shoulder, Out
- Oliver Ortega (Houston Astros): Back, Out
- Lance McCullers (Houston Astros): Forearm, Out
- J.P. France (Houston Astros): Shoulder, Out
- Lou Trivino (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Scott Effross (New York Yankees): Back, 60-Day IL
- Jasson Dominguez (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Wandy Peralta (New York Yankees): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Ryan Weber (New York Yankees): Forearm, Out
- Jose Trevino (New York Yankees): Calf, Out
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