- The Phillies are -120 favorites vs the Yankees
- Yankees vs Phillies Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Yankees / Phillies TV Channel: NSPA | YES | TBS
The New York Yankees (+100) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-120) on Tuesday, July 30, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia, PA.
This season, the Yankees are 63-45 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 54-52 ATS.
Yankees vs Phillies Starting Pitchers Today:
- Yankees starting pitcher: Gerrit Cole 3-2, 5.46 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola 11-4, 3.47 ERA
Yankees vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | +1.5 -200 | O 9 +100 | +100 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +150 | U 9 -120 | -120 |
Yankees vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 52.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Anthony Volpe has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+22.00 Units / 314% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 39 games (+14.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 46 games (+13.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- Ben Rice has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+11.95 Units / 31% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.60 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 22 games (+17.30 Units / 79% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 20 games (+17.20 Units / 48% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the Singles Over in 35 of his last 50 games (+15.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+13.90 Units / 41% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 46 games (+11.80 Units / 19% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 51 games (+19.15 Units / 34% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 74 games (+15.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 51 of their last 85 games (+13.59 Units / 13% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 74 games (+9.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 58 away games (+8.95 Units / 13% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 56 of their last 91 games (+18.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 33 of their last 46 games at home (+16.90 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 53 of their last 88 games (+12.10 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 47 games (+10.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 28 games at home (+10.40 Units / 34% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 57-51 against the Run Line (+12.1 Units / 9.4% ROI).
- 63-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.85 Units / -0.55% ROI
- 58-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +7 Units / 5.87% ROI
- 46-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.65 Units / -14.89% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Phillies are 54-52 against the Run Line (+1.75 Units / 1.39% ROI).
- 65-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.9 Units / 1.67% ROI
- 47-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.05 Units / -11.13% ROI
- 54-47 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.15 Units / 1.86% ROI
Phillies vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -275 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -400 |
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -400 |
| Austin Wells (NYY) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
Phillies vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Alex Verdugo (NYY) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Nick Castellanos (PHI) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| J.T. Realmuto (PHI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Phillies vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -130 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Austin Wells (NYY) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
Phillies vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole (NYY) | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +125 |
| Aaron Nola (PHI) | 6.5 +125 | 6.5 -160 |
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Gerrit Cole has allowed an OPS of just .560 (646 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .679 — 100th Percentile.
Gerrit Cole has allowed a slugging percentage of just .307 (185 Total Bases / 603 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .386 — 96th Percentile.
Gerrit Cole has a strikeout rate of 30% (191 SO in 646 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 96th Percentile.
Gerrit Cole has allowed an OBP of just .253 (645 PA’s) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .294 — 96th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (328/934) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 106 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 98th Percentile.
Hitters have chased 180 of Aaron Nola’s 368 breaking balls out of the zone (chase rate of 49%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .138 (12-for-87) against Aaron Nola’s elevated fastball this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .206 — 94th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .121 (30-for-248) against Aaron Nola with two-strikes this season — tied for 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .163 — 94th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Yankees are 12-16 (.429) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Yankees are 33-7 (.825) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .639.
The Yankees are 26-20 (.565) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
The Yankees are 64-20 (.762) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .622.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Phillies are 15-10 (.600) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
The Phillies are just 2-9 (.182) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 56-9 (.862) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
The Phillies are 11-96 (.103) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .053.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have drawn 132 walks in 1,099 PA’s (12%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have drawn 406 walks in 3,816 PA’s (11%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have chased 23% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Yankees hitters have an OPS of .794 (3,049 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .709.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .342 (1,328 PA’s) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .317.
The Phillies are batting .253 with two outs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .236.
The Phillies have a winning percentage of 67% at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .777 (4,946 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .200 against Yankees pitchers with the shift since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .234.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .222 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Yankees pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .221 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .255.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .183 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Phillies have won 56% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 286 of 3,921 batters (7%) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Phillies have won 44% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Phillies vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taijuan Walker (Philadelphia Phillies): Finger, 15-Day IL
- Michael Rucker (Philadelphia Phillies): Hand, 60-Day IL
- Rodolfo Castro (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Dylan Covey (Philadelphia Phillies): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jonathan Loaisiga (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Jasson Dominguez (New York Yankees): Oblique, 7-Day IL
- Everson Pereira (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Giancarlo Stanton (New York Yankees): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Clayton Beeter (New York Yankees): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Clarke Schmidt (New York Yankees): Lat, 60-Day IL
- Jon Berti (New York Yankees): Calf, 60-Day IL
- Ian Hamilton (New York Yankees): Lat, 15-Day IL
- Anthony Rizzo (New York Yankees): Forearm, 60-Day IL
- Jose Trevino (New York Yankees): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
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