- The Yankees are -165 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Yankees vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Yankees / Red Sox TV Channel: NESN | YES | ESPN+ | MLBN
The New York Yankees (-165) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (+140) on Friday, June 14, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:30pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Yankees are 49-22 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 32-37 ATS.
Yankees vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Yankees starting pitcher: Luis Gil 8-1, 2.04 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 6-3, 4.81 ERA
Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Yankees | -1.5 -105 | O 9.5 -120 | -165 |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -115 | U 9.5 +100 | +140 |
Yankees vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Friday‘s MLB game with 63.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Bets Today:
- Aaron Judge has hit the Home Runs Over in 17 of his last 35 games (+19.95 Units / 57% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Runs Over in 30 of his last 37 games (+19.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 37 games (+18.05 Units / 23% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 27 of his last 37 games (+16.75 Units / 39% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 36 games (+12.15 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 33 of his last 50 games (+16.90 Units / 32% ROI)
- David Hamilton has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+16.60 Units / 415% ROI)
- Rob Refsnyder has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+13.75 Units / 42% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 28 games (+10.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- David Hamilton has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.45 Units / 28% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 37 games (+23.80 Units / 54% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 37 games (+23.80 Units / 52% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 40 games (+21.45 Units / 36% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 34 of their last 48 games (+18.79 Units / 32% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 71 games (+18.30 Units / 18% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 games at home (+8.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+6.60 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.90 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+5.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 35 of their last 69 games (+5.05 Units / 6% ROI)
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Yankees are 43-28 against the Run Line (+20.1 Units / 23.56% ROI).
- 49-22 when betting on the Moneyline for +18.3 Units / 17.52% ROI
- 33-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.65 Units / -8.49% ROI
- 36-33 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.1 Units / -0.13% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 32-37 against the Run Line (-11.1 Units / -11.81% ROI).
- 35-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.9 Units / -3.44% ROI
- 30-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.95 Units / -10.47% ROI
- 35-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.45 Units / 3.22% ROI
Red Sox vs Yankees Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -300 |
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Tyler O'Neill (BOS) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jose Trevino (NYY) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Anthony Rizzo (NYY) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Red Sox vs Yankees RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Rafael Devers (BOS) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Juan Soto (NYY) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Alex Verdugo (NYY) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brayan Bello (BOS) | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -110 |
| Luis Gil (NYY) | 6.5 -105 | 6.5 -125 |
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .137 (35-for-255) against Luis Gil this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .144 (21-for-146) against Luis Gil this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — 98th Percentile.
Luis Gil has allowed a slugging percentage of just .243 (62 Total Bases / 255 ABs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .376 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .079 (12-for-151) against Luis Gil with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .161 — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (70/422) against Brayan Bello since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (149/244) against Brayan Bello in two-strike counts since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 91 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .362 (17-for-47) against Brayan Bello over the last 14 days — 2nd highest among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .237 — third Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 59% (250/425) against Brayan Bello since the 2022 season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Yankees are 9-5 (.643) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .239.
The Yankees are 8-11 (.421) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .188.
The Yankees are 24-19 (.558) after a win as underdogs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .411.
The Yankees are 18-7 (.720) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .461.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Red Sox are just 1-29 (.033) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .112.
The Red Sox are just 1-12 (.077) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .239.
The Red Sox are just 7-30 (.189) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.
The Red Sox are just 48-163 (.227) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have an OPS of .790 (2,018 PA’s) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .697.
Yankees hitters are slugging .741 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .553.
Yankees hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 1,992 of their 8,669 plate appearances (23%) since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Yankees hitters are slugging .454 against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .387.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have won 78% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Yankees pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 24% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Yankees have won 61% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Yankees pitchers have won 53% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 179 of 2,560 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 11 of 108 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.3 MPH this season (1,705 balls in play) — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.9
Red Sox vs. Yankees Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 10-Day IL
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Zack Kelly (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Day-To-Day
- Bryan Mata (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Chris Murphy (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Back, Day-To-Day
- Brandon Walter (Boston Red Sox): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Lucas Giolito (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Rob Refsnyder (Boston Red Sox): Toe, 10-Day IL
- Yu Chang (Boston Red Sox): Oblique, Out
- Anthony Volpe (New York Yankees): Illness, Day-To-Day
- Lou Trivino (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Scott Effross (New York Yankees): Back, 60-Day IL
- Jasson Dominguez (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Gerrit Cole (New York Yankees): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- McKinley Moore (New York Yankees): Knee, 15-Day IL
- Ryan Weber (New York Yankees): Forearm, Out
- DJ LeMahieu (New York Yankees): Foot, 10-Day IL
- Oscar Gonzalez (New York Yankees): Orbital, Out
- Jorbit Vivas (New York Yankees): Orbital, Out
- Tommy Kahnle (New York Yankees): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Oswald Peraza (New York Yankees): Shoulder, 10-Day IL
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