- The Diamondbacks are -185 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kenneth Kelly
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Washington Nationals (+150) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-185) on Friday, May 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Diamondbacks are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Nationals vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 13-18 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 18-13 ATS.
Nationals vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -125 | O 9 +100 | +150 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +105 | U 9 -120 | -185 |
Nationals vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 13 away games (+6.80 Units / 37% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+6.60 Units / 80% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 12 away games (+6.40 Units / 48% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 28 games (+14.35 Units / 48% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+12.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+12.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+9.55 Units / 56% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+9.45 Units / 47% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 25 games (+10.20 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+8.95 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 away games (+6.25 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.25 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 away games (+5.65 Units / 40% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.35 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 23 games (+7.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 30 games (+6.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 28 games (+5.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games (+3.55 Units / 21% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 19-12 against the Run Line (+6.1 Units / 16.67% ROI).
- 13-18 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.05 Units / 13.06% ROI
- 12-16 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.25 Units / -15.6% ROI
- 16-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.85 Units / 8.24% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 18-13 against the Run Line (+4.2 Units / 10.33% ROI).
- 17-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.95 Units / 16.69% ROI
- 16-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.75 Units / 5.1% ROI
- 13-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.4 Units / -12.94% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
7 of Josiah Gray’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for 3rd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 14% (13/95) against Josiah Gray this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Josiah Gray has a strike rate of just 61% (179/291) against right-handed batters this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — fifth Percentile.
Josiah Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of .664 (160 Total Bases / 241 ABs) on fastballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 76 total IP; League Avg: .428 — 0 Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Merrill Kelly has walked 13 of 65 right-handed batters (20%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has thrown low pitches 69% of the time (91/131) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has walked 18 of 132 batters (14%) this season — tied for 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — fifth Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has allowed a slugging percentage of just .188 (9 Total Bases / 48 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .364 — 98th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Nationals are just 117-13 (.900) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Nationals are just 85-48 (.639) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Nationals are just 0-17 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Nationals are just 0-9 (.000) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Diamondbacks are just 103-33 (.757) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .870.
The Diamondbacks are just 115-23 (.833) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .909.
The Diamondbacks are just 19-9 (.679) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .804.
The Diamondbacks are just 65-17 (.793) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .878.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.62 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.92.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 30% at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have 40 extra-base hits out of 173 total hits (just 23%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Diamondbacks are batting .210 with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of just .670 (2,089 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Games involving the Diamondbacks have hit UNDER in 56% of their games at home since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Nationals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have walked 117 of 1,161 batters (10%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Diamondbacks vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Oblique, D15
- Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D10
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- McKenzie Dickerson (Nationals): Calf, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Chad Kuhl (Nationals): Foot, D15
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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