Bucks vs Mavericks Prediction, Odds, Best Bets & Team Props – NBA, Oct. 17

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 17, 2024, 1:26 PM
  • The Mavericks are -4.5 favorites vs. the Bucks
  • Total (Over/Under): 218.5 points
  • Watch the game on TNT | BSWI

The Milwaukee Bucks visit American Airlines Center to take on the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday. Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT in Dallas, TX.

The Mavericks are betting favorites in this NBA matchup, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-105).

The Bucks vs Mavericks Over/Under is 218.5 total points for the game.

So far this NBA season, the Bucks are 0-3 against the spread, while the Mavericks are 0-3 against the spread.


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Bucks vs. Mavericks Odds, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Milwaukee Bucks+4.5 -115O 218.5 -110+145
Dallas Mavericks -4.5 -105U 218.5 -110-175

Mavericks vs Bucks Prediction for Tonight’s Game:

The winning team model predicts the Mavericks will win Thursday‘s game with 69.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups for both Bucks and Mavericks.

Mavericks vs Bucks Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread (ATS) trends, the model predicts the Bucks will cover the spread for Thursday‘s game with 66.1% confidence.


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  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the Team Total Under in 37 of their last 62 games (+11.05 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 21 of their last 33 away games (+8.30 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 1H Game Total Under in 35 of their last 61 games (+7.45 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 33 of their last 57 games (+6.75 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 57 games (+6.60 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 79 games (+20.20 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the 2Q Game Total Under in 48 of their last 75 games (+18.20 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have covered the Spread in 36 of their last 55 games (+16.20 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have covered the 4Q Spread in 27 of their last 41 games (+13.00 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 42 games (+11.55 Units / 12% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA preseason, the Bucks have gone 0-3 (-3.35 Units / -100% ROI).

  • 1-2 against the Moneyline (-1.75 Units / -33.98% ROI)
  • 0-3 against the Over for game total points (-3.3 Units / -100% ROI)
  • 3-0 against the Under for game total points (+3 Units / 90.91% ROI)

Against the spread this NBA preseason, the Mavericks have gone 0-3 (-3.3 Units / -100% ROI).

  • 0-3 against the Moneyline (-3.75 Units / -100% ROI)
  • 1-2 against the Over for game total points (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI)
  • 2-1 against the Under for game total points (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 27 of their last 77 games (-29.65 Units / -33% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Game Total Over in 29 of their last 81 games (-28.20 Units / -32% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 46 of their last 100 games (-26.20 Units / -16% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 22 games at home (-21.75 Units / -57% ROI)
  • The Dallas Mavericks have only hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 67 games (-19.90 Units / -25% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 56 games (-51.70 Units / -29% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 1H Moneyline in 39 of their last 74 games (-29.25 Units / -17% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only covered the 1H Spread in 11 of their last 43 away games (-23.75 Units / -48% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only covered the 3Q Spread in 36 of their last 88 games (-21.45 Units / -21% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Bucks have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 44 of their last 87 games (-20.80 Units / -13% ROI)

Jump to:

Milwaukee Bucks: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Mavericks

The Bucks were 27-3 (.900) when scoring 15 or more fastbreak points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .554

The Bucks were 27-11 (.711) when allowing 15 or more second chance points last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: .466

The Bucks were 19-9 (.679) when shooting 80% or better from the free throw line last season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .543

The Bucks are 37-2 (.949) when winning the rebounding margin by 10 or more since the start of the 2022-23 season — 2nd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .749

Dallas Mavericks: Keys to the Game vs. the Milwaukee Bucks

The Mavericks were 20-10 (.667) when attempting 25 or more free throws last season — tied for 9th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .554

The Mavericks were 28-2 (.933) when shooting 50% or better from the field last season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: .789

The Mavericks were 41-27 (.603) when grabbing 12 or more offensive rebounds last season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: .487

The Mavericks were 7-8 (.467) when allowing fewer than 10 second chance points last season — 10th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: .554

Injury Report: Mavericks vs. BucksThursday‘s Game, Oct. 17

  • Dallas Mavericks – No Injuries Reported
  • Milwaukee Bucks – No Injuries Reported

Milwaukee Bucks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Bucks averaged 6.8 points in the paint per game (414 points/61 games) in close and late situations last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 8.8

The Bucks averaged 1.39 points per shot (4,829 points/3,483 shots) in the second half last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 1.31

The Bucks shot 74% from the free throw line (1,364/1,837) last season — tied for 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 78%

The Bucks had 23.9 free throw attempts per game last season — 3rd best among NBA teams; League Avg: 21.7

Dallas Mavericks Offensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks averaged 42.8 points in the paint per game (3,510 points/82 games) last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.5

The Mavericks have averaged 43.6 points in the paint per game (3,572 points/82 games) on the road since the start of the 2022-23 season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.2

The Mavericks averaged 40.7 points in the paint per game (1,668 points/41 games) on the road last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 50.2

The Mavericks averaged 20.1 points in the paint per game (1,646 points/82 games) in the second half last season — lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 24.2

Milwaukee Bucks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Bucks averaged 39.7 defensive rebounds per game (3,254 rebounds/82 games) last season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Bucks have averaged 38.3 defensive rebounds per game (6,289 rebounds/164 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.3

The Bucks allowed an average of 1.21 points per shot (4,679 points/3,854 shots) on the road last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 1.31

The Bucks allowed an average of 1.18 points per shot (4,607 points/3,889 shots) in the first half last season — best among NBA defenses; League Avg: 1.28

Dallas Mavericks Defensive Stats & Trends

The Mavericks averaged 6.3 steals per game (514 steals/82 games) last season — 2nd lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.3

The Mavericks averaged 7.0 steals per game (572 steals/82 games) last season — tied for 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 7.5

The Mavericks averaged 33.8 defensive rebounds per game (2,774 rebounds/82 games) last season — 7th lowest among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2

The Mavericks averaged 36.0 defensive rebounds per game (2,951 rebounds/82 games) last season — 8th best among NBA teams; League Avg: 35.2


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.